What do the latest population projections tell us about Wales?

Posted on 30 October 2019 by Cian Sion

The Wales Fiscal Analysis team share insights from the latest population projections and reveal that Wales may be on the verge of its first period of sustained population decline in nearly a century.
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Devolved taxes, the Welsh budget and a no-deal Brexit

Posted on 25 September 2019 by Cian Sion

A no-deal Brexit would affect the Welsh budget in various ways, likely reducing future growth in spending and creating extra pressures on the spending side of the budget. In this blog post, the Wales Fiscal Analysis team explore another channel through which the Welsh budget may be affected by a no-deal Brexit – through the effect on devolved tax revenues.
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The public sector pay bill in Wales

Posted on 24 June 2019 by Cian Sion

The public sector in Wales When economists and politicians talk about the public sector, they are referring to the part of the economy that is owned, funded or run by central or local government. This includes all levels of government administration, publicly-funded health and social care, social security, education, defence and policing. Wales has historically
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Devolving Welfare: How well would Wales fare?

Posted on 12 April 2019 by Cian Sion

As the Scottish Government prepares for the devolution of eleven welfare benefits to Holyrood, Cian Sion and Guto Ifan from the Wales Fiscal Analysis team explore the fiscal implications of devolving similar powers to Wales.
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Another small step out of austerity – before a giant leap into the unknown

Posted on 15 March 2019 by Cian Sion

Amidst the political drama of crucial Brexit votes this week, the Chancellor of the Exchequer delivered his Spring Statement on the UK’s economy and public finances. This blog post looks at what the Spring Statement and forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) can tell us about future Welsh budgets and Welsh public services.
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Not so fast – for Welsh local authorities, austerity won’t be “coming to an end” any time soon

Posted on 18 February 2019 by Cian Sion

At last year’s Autumn Budget, the UK Chancellor, Philip Hammond, asserted with confidence that “austerity is finally coming to an end”. His claim is unlikely to resonate within the halls of local government in Wales. Despite nearly a decade of sustained budget cuts, the outlook for local government finance suggests that tough choices and trade-offs are here to stay.
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Cut to the bone? How a decade of austerity has left its mark on local government in Wales

Posted on 12 February 2019 by Cian Sion

As local authorities across Wales prepare to publish their budgets for 2019-20, expect to see a significant rise in Council Tax, with councils increasingly relying on locally-sourced revenue to partially offset cuts to their funding and to meet increasing demand pressures.
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When the going gets tough – analysing the Welsh Government Outline Draft Budget

Posted on 4 October 2018 by Guto Ifan

As he delivered the Outline Draft Budget for 2019-20, the Cabinet Secretary for Finance Mark Drakeford described this budget round as the “toughest yet”. This was the eighth Welsh Government budget since the start of UK austerity measures, which has left the overall Welsh budget 5% lower in real terms since 2010-11. It is also
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The income tax base in Wales – who’ll pay what to the Welsh Government?

Posted on 23 July 2018 by Guto Ifan

From next April, the income tax paid by Welsh taxpayers will be partially devolved to the Welsh Government. UK government income tax rates paid in Wales will fall by 10p in the pound (e.g. from 20p to 10p at the basic rate). In an historic landmark for devolution this autumn, the Welsh Government will introduce
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Taxes in the draft Welsh Budget – Wales’ first ‘rabbit-out-of-hat’ moment?

Posted on 9 October 2017 by Guto Ifan

George Osborne’s Chancellorship was famously littered with headline-grabbing tax reforms, tax-hikes and give-aways. In style and politics, the ex-Chancellor may have very little in common with the Welsh Government’s Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government, Mark Drakeford, but he would have been proud of one particular announcement in the latter’s budget speech last week.
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