2026 Senedd manifesto analysis: Childcare policies

By Guto Ifan, Ed Gareth Poole and Owain Cynfab

Childcare has emerged as a common theme across most manifestos at this election. This blogpost – the third in a series of manifesto analyses as part of the 2026 Scottish and Welsh Elections Project, conducted in partnership with the Fraser of Allander Institute and supported by the Nuffield Foundation – zeroes in on what has become a very hot policy topic in Wales.

We outline the current state of play in relation to funded childcare in Wales, explore why the issue has recently become so politically salient, and analyse what has been proposed on childcare by each party in their manifesto for the May 2026 elections.

What is the current picture for childcare in Wales?

Childcare support for parents in Wales is scattered across several schemes offered by either the Welsh or UK governments, and with support dependent on the child’s age, place of residence, and their parents’ status in or out of work.

From the term after a child turns 3, all children receive 10 hours per week of early years education during term time (i.e. 39 weeks a year).

In more deprived areas (covered by the Flying Start programme), two and three-year-olds can receive 12.5 hours of funded childcare per week (for 39 weeks a year). This provision is currently being expanded towards universal coverage, as part of measures first announced as part of the Co-operation Agreement between the Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru back in 2021. This council-wide rollout has been achieved in Merthyr Tydfil, Swansea and Newport.

The Childcare Offer for Wales provides working parents with children aged 3-4 with 20 hours of funded childcare per week for 48 weeks.

Why has Childcare policy become politically salient?

A key context in this policy area is that there has been a significant and growing divergence between Wales and England. Across the border, there has been a significant expansion of entitlements and in the childcare offer to parents.

At the Spring Budget 2023, the UK government announced new expanded entitlements; since September 2025, working families are offered up to 30 hours a week (for 38 weeks a year) for children aged 9 months to 2 years. This expansion has increased funding for childcare in England by roughly £5.9 billion by 2028.

This has led to more funding for the Welsh Government budget. Although we can’t directly track funding consequentials directly triggered by the policy, this will have increased the block grant by approximately £330 million a year by 2028-29.

The Welsh Government doesn’t have to follow England – the block grant is non-hypothecated, and the Welsh Government might have argued that other spending pressures or services haven’t been funded in England that it would rather prioritise.

In terms of the Welsh Government spending on childcare, it is not possible to accurately track it in budget documents – it’s split between two so-called ‘Budget Expenditure Lines’, which also include non-childcare spending.

Budget allocations to these two lines have increased by approximately £60 million from 2023-24 to 2026-27; some distance short of the consequential funding that the Welsh Government will have received.[1] This likely leaves per person spending substantially below English levels.

Why expand childcare?

The Bevan Foundation has highlighted key issues around affordability, accessibility and gaps in the provision in the Welsh system. Average childcare costs for parents of children aged 2 and under are now significantly higher in Wales than in England and Scotland.

In an extraordinary example, the foundation calculates that a female in full-time work with a child aged under 2, and whose earnings is at the 25^th percentile, would have to spend almost 60% of their weekly earnings on childcare costs.

There are a number of reasons why policymakers may wish to expand funded childcare. It can be a crucial form of cost-of-living support for families already using, and paying for, childcare. Others will use formal childcare for the first time; this may allow parents to return to work earlier. It can boost incomes, move families out of poverty, and improve outcomes for children.

These aims may dictate what policymakers prioritise – in terms of eligibility, the number of hours offered, and across how many weeks – when designing their policy response.

What are the parties proposing?

Welsh Labour have proposed continuing to expand access to funded childcare to families with children under 3, with entitlements to be ‘phased in’ for children aged 9 months or older. This extends the Flying Start model of funding 12.5 hours of childcare per week for 39 weeks of the year.

Plaid Cymru plan on offering 20 hours a week of free childcare for all children aged 9 months to 4 years, for up to 48 weeks a year. This childcare offer would be in addition to the existing 30-hour offer for those children aged 3 and 4 whose parents are in work, education or training.

The Welsh Green Party also propose 20 hours a week of funded childcare (for 48 weeks a year) for all children aged 9 months to 4 years, and with a sliding scale of fees based on income for additional funded hours.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats’ manifesto proposes the most expansionist policy, guaranteeing free childcare for every child from 9 months to 4 years old for 30 hours a week (for 48 weeks a year).

The Welsh Conservatives propose extending 30 hours of free childcare to children aged 9 months to 4 years old, but only for parents who are in work, education and training (seemingly for 48 weeks a year). They also propose a Grandparent Childcare Payment of up to £4,800 per year for grandparents who provide childcare for their grandchildren.

Relative to current policies in England, Plaid Cymru, Welsh Green Party, Welsh Conservatives and Welsh Liberal Democrats would go further on the number of hours, weeks or eligibility of the funded childcare offered. Welsh Labour plans would leave parents with fewer funded hours for younger children, though available regardless of parents’ work status.

Reform UK’s manifesto contains no specified pledge on childcare. Even if the current expansion of Flying Start provision is completed, Wales would remain with the least generous childcare offer in the UK.

Are the plans affordable and deliverable?

Although no party has published full costings of their manifestos, reported estimated costs of the parties’ childcare policies range from £100 million a year for Welsh Labour’s proposals to £400 million a year for Plaid Cymru’s offer by 2030-31. Eventual costs would naturally depend on take-up, and ensuring capacity within the sector will be a challenge – although given experience in England, not an undeliverable one.

At between 0.4% and 1.5% of projected day-to-day spending by 2030-31, this is an enhanced but not a particularly huge spending commitment over a whole Senedd term.

However, this would need to be delivered in the context of a difficult – though highly uncertain – fiscal outlook, and alongside other tax and spending manifesto commitments. Underlying spending pressures and commitments to improve NHS performance will require significant uplifts in health spending, which will likely squeeze the other half of the budget in real terms.

Given the prominence across almost all manifestos, childcare is likely to feature in government formation and budget negotiations. These negotiations will also require some prioritisation and compromise – either in terms of other manifesto commitments, unmentioned spending or tax trade-offs, or in the design of the expanded childcare to be delivered.

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This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org.

The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.

[1] It should be noted that, relative to the overall size of the population, there are approximately 10% fewer children under the age of 4 in Wales compared to England.