2026 Senedd manifesto analysis: the spending priorities of the parties

By Guto Ifan, Ed Gareth Poole and Owain Cynfab

This blog – the second in a series of manifesto analyses as part of the 2026 Scottish and Welsh Elections Project, conducted in partnership with the Fraser of Allander Institute and supported by the Nuffield Foundation – outlines what the manifestos tell us about the spending priorities of the parties ahead of the Senedd election.

It focuses on day-to-day spending commitments on health, other large spending pledges, and considers the overall feasibility of the proposed policies.

Summary

• All parties are promising improvements in, or expansion of, health services, including prioritising cutting waiting lists and times, more care in the community, mental health funding and prevention and early intervention.
• All parties bar Reform UK are proposing an expansion of childcare provision and funding, with reported estimated costs ranging from £100 million a year under Welsh Labour’s proposals to £400 million a year under Plaid Cymru’s plans.
• The manifestos contain other commitments, such as fare caps or expanding free bus travel (Green Party, Welsh Labour, Welsh Conservatives), reforming or increasing farm support (Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Liberal Democrats, Reform UK) and expanding free school meals (Plaid Cymru, Welsh Labour, Greens).
• Given the current outlook for Welsh Government funding and the parties’ proposals for the NHS, the scope for substantial additional spending commitments appears limited. If the UK government sticks to current spending plans they would require significant – and thus far unspoken – cuts to some public services or tax increases.
• Reform UK’s manifesto promises to deliver tax cuts “without cuts to frontline services”, proposing reducing spending on “green subsidies”, “quangos”, and civil service pay. The vast majority of spending on decarbonisation and energy projects is in the capital budget, not day-to-day spending which the tax cut would reduce. The functions of arms-length bodies would still need to be funded after their abolition. And plans to “bring in” these bodies into central government would have implications for the hugely ambitious plans to reduce central staff and running costs.
• With no party on course to secure a majority at the election, negotiations and agreements will be required to form the government and pass budgets. Alongside finding common ground on spending priorities, these negotiations will eventually have to turn to identifying areas to deprioritise too.

What are the parties proposing on NHS spending?

Unsurprisingly, the NHS features centrally in all party manifestos. Accounting for more than half of the Welsh Government’s budget for day-to-day spending, trends in health spending will be crucial in improving performance and delivering manifesto commitments – as well as determining how much funding will be left for all other areas within the budget.

Some key health and social care priorities of the parties (with their likely implications for spending) are outlined in the table below. All parties are promising some forms of improvement and expansion of services. There are some common themes across all or most of the manifestos, including prioritising cutting waiting lists and times, providing more care in the community, mental health funding and prevention and early intervention.

Table 1: Summary of health and social care manifesto commitments by party

Generally little detail is given on how various improvements, guarantees and targets would be met and it is difficult to quantify the additional spending these policies would require, over and above ‘stand still’ spending pressures facing the NHS.

These underlying cost and demand pressures are likely to be significant. The Welsh NHS will face higher demand from demographic change – the population aged 75 and over is set to increase by a further 7% by 2030 and medical advances mean many people are fortunately able to live for longer with complicated illnesses. Additionally, there are costs associated with adoption of new technologies; new drugs and other treatments which tend to increase costs over time. Pay deals will also likely continue to grow in real terms.

Last year, the Health Foundation estimated that improving NHS performance in England would require annual real terms spending increases averaging 3.4% per year in the decade to 2034-35. Many of the underlying assumptions are also applicable to Wales, yet total funding for Welsh Government day-to-day spending is set to increase by only 0.7% per year in real terms for the next Senedd term.

Given this constrained outlook for total public spending, delivering improved outcomes – alongside a plethora of commitments from the party manifestos – would require substantial productivity growth in the NHS each year, reversing the trends seen since the pandemic.

Moreover, on current projections of the overall size of the Welsh budget, the increases in health spending that are likely needed would leave the next government having to find cuts to other areas of public services.

Other big spending commitments

A common theme across most manifestos is the expansion of childcare, which we will be exploring in more detail in a further blog post later this week. The Green Party, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats all propose 20 hours or more of free childcare for every child from nine months to four years old, for 48 weeks of the year. The Welsh Conservatives make a similar pledge for working families, as well as proposing a Grandparent Childcare Payment of up to £4,800 per year for grandparents who provide childcare to their grandchildren.

Welsh Labour want to expand the current ‘Flying Start’ programme of 12.5 hours of funded childcare for 39 weeks of the year to younger aged children (from 9 months).

This would represent a big expansion of service provision and spending in an area that Wales has notably fallen behind the rest of the UK; some of the most expansive proposals would go beyond what is currently offered in England. Reported estimated costs range from £100 million a year under Welsh Labour’s proposals to £400 million a year under Plaid Cymru’s plans.

This represents the largest explicit spending commitment in Plaid Cymru’s manifesto. It also proposes trialling a Welsh child payment of £10 per child per week for children in families receiving Universal Credit (initially to 15,000 children). They would also expand free school meals to more secondary school pupils, starting with all students (Years 7-11) from families receiving Universal Credit. There are also other commitments which may have spending implications, including establishing a National Development Agency, progress towards a National Care Service free at the point of use, as well as increasing funding for culture and sport.

Other spending proposals in the Welsh Labour manifesto include expanding eligibility for ‘baby bundles’ to all families receiving Universal Credit, rather than to just those living in the most deprived areas. Free school meals in secondary schools would also be extended to all households receiving Universal Credit. Bus fares would also be capped at £2 for all adults, along with an expansion of bus routes. There are also other commitments on improving pay and conditions for social care workers and school support staff, expanding apprenticeships, grants for young entrepreneurs and support for unpaid carers.

The Green Party would also expand bus routes, while proposing a £1 cap on bus fares for adults and free travel for those under 22. They would also want to go further on free school meals, with universal provision in secondary schools. Other commitments include more spending on active travel, train services, culture and arts, local journalism and Natural Resources Wales, as well as investment in social housing and energy efficiency.

Alongside the most expansionist childcare proposals, the Welsh Liberal Democrats promise to increase school and college funding per pupil in real terms every year and to provide free school meals during holidays. Their proposal to increase income tax – conditional on the UK government not reforming Welsh funding – would go towards boosting social care spending. They also propose more funding to Natural Resources Wales and £50 million a year to support sustainable farming, alongside other commitments on sports, arts, culture, transport and social housing.

Alongside substantial tax cuts, the Welsh Conservative manifesto also contain a number of policies which would have spending implications, alongside their health and childcare proposals. They propose increasing school funding each year, while university tuition fees would be refunded for teaching graduates who go on to work in Welsh schools (alongside nursing, teaching and dentistry graduates). On social care, they would increase the capital limit from £50,000 to £75,000 for those accessing residential care; individuals with capital above this limit must self-fund their care in full. They would also extend free bus travel and provide free rail cards to all 16-24 year olds. They pledge to increase farm funding by £100 million over the next Senedd term, alongside a £20 million Wildlife Wales Fund.

Reform UK’s manifesto contains notably fewer specific additional spending commitments, though they do promise reviews and reforms which may eventually have funding implications. They also propose reforming farm funding, but without specific commitments. They propose expanding technical education and apprenticeships, as well as reviewing ALN systems and support. They want to ‘top up’ coal-tip remediation funding, as well as establishing a ring-fenced local fund to repair public spaces. The manifesto also promises investment in sport and school activities.

It should also be noted here that some parties propose using private finance to fund capital investment (which will be explored in more detail in a forthcoming blog post) – for example, Reform UK’s proposal for the M4 relief road and Welsh Labour’s £4 billion “Hospitals of the Future Fund”. Using such ‘off-the-books’ financing arrangements would allow more investment beyond a core capital budget set to fall in real terms. However, this would lead to substantial costs – potentially in the hundreds of millions – for day-to-day budgets by the end of the Senedd term and beyond.

Tax cuts without cuts to “frontline services”?

The Conservatives and Reform UK, as discussed in our previous blog, propose explicit tax cuts worth £705 million and £450 million a year, respectively, by 2030-31. Reform UK manifesto says that the Income Tax cut can be funded through “reductions in expenditure elsewhere, without cuts to frontline services”.

In recent interviews and debates, leader Dan Thomas noted the tax cut would be funded by cutting: £145 million on “green subsidies and levies”; £135 million on “quangos”; and £95 million in “civil service pay restraint and estate management”.

Such a level of savings could not be found from current Welsh Government spending on decarbonisation and green energy projects. Income tax cuts would reduce the Welsh Government’s budget for day-to-day spending, but the vast majority of spending on decarbonisation and green energy projects comes from the Welsh Government’s capital budget, which cannot be used for day-to-day spending. Day-to-day spending budget lines for ‘Residential Decarbonisation & Quality’, the ‘Warm Homes Programme’, the ‘Welsh Government Energy Service’, ‘Climate Change Action’, ‘Green Energy’ and ‘Ynni Cymru’ come to just £25 million for 2026-27. Some of this spending Reform UK also want to repurpose for “those on the lowest incomes who need help”.[1]

The only arms-length body explicitly mentioned for abolition in the Reform UK manifesto is Natural Resources Wales. The resource budget line for the body in 2026-27 amounts to £112 million, with additional funding from other budget lines. However, the manifesto also states that flood defence, forestry, marine licensing, and environmental protection would continue without interruption – functions which would still need to be funded.

Plans to “bring in” bodies into central government would also have implications for the Welsh Government’s central costs. In this context, a £95 million saving from the Welsh Government’s own running costs looks particularly ambitious, implying a 28% reduction in the current allocations for central staff and running costs (of £341 million in 2026-27). Reform UK’s manifesto calls for a 10% headcount reduction and a pay freeze for the civil service – all while bringing ‘in house’ functions such as flood defence, forestry, marine licensing and environmental protection.

Both the Welsh Conservatives and Reform UK manifestos specify other smaller potential savings and cuts. Both call for the ending of international aid; this amounts to just over £1 million for 2026-27.

The Welsh Conservatives would privatise Cardiff International Airport, while Reform UK would review it. Most of the subsidies being provided to the airport comes from capital spending. But Cardiff Airport’s resource budget allocation for 2026-27 is actually negative reflecting the income received from its operations.[2]

The Welsh Conservatives want to reverse the number of Senedd members back to 60, which could save £20 million a year, but this could by its very nature only commence after the next Senedd election in 2030.

Reform UK want to abolish ‘diversity, equality and inclusion’ (DEI) officer roles in the public sector. This is unlikely to lead to big savings; for example, in a response to a Freedom of Information Request last year, the Welsh Government identified around 6.2 Full-Time Equivalent staff in DEI-specific roles. The manifesto also promises to end public funding for “politically biased” NGOs and charities, with no further details.

Taken together, the identified savings and cuts mentioned in both manifestos do not offset the cost of the proposed tax cuts. As in the case of substantial spending commitments offered by other parties, they would likely need to be matched by offsetting cuts to other public services.

Unspoken trade-offs

Given the outlook for Welsh Government funding and the parties’ proposals for the NHS, the scope for significant additional spending commitments or tax cuts appears limited.

As we’ve previously noted, however, the outlook is highly uncertain and is likely to change. Funding from the UK government may grow faster than current plans imply. Meanwhile, the economic outlook is perhaps more uncertain than at any time since the start of the pandemic, and a large spike in inflation this year would likely blow even the best-laid plans off course.

If the UK government sticks to its current spending plans – or lets the real terms value of the block grant settlement to erode in real terms – growing NHS spending alongside the various manifesto commitments on childcare, education, transport, social care and taxation will require significant cuts to some public services or tax increases. The manifestos are largely silent on how these trade-offs would be managed.

With no party on course to secure a majority at the election, negotiations and agreements will be required to form the government and pass budgets. Alongside finding common ground on the manifesto commitments, these negotiations will eventually have to turn to some more difficult choices.

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This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org.

The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.

[1] For example, “energy efficiency Nest will be focused on those on the lowest incomes who need help.”

[2] For further details of the Airport subsidy package, see written evidence from December 2025: https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2025-12/written-evidence-cabinet-secretary-for-energy-economy-and-planning-december-2025.pdf.