Getting down to (plenary) business: the first day of the Seventh Senedd

This post was written by Dr Adam Evans, Honorary Research Fellow at the Wales Governance Centre.

Basking in the glow of Thursday’s historic Senedd election result, Plaid Cymru made clear on Saturday that they want the new Senedd to convene on Tuesday 12 May. Emerging as the single largest party with 43 MSs (Members of the Senedd) on 35.4% of the vote, Plaid Cymru’s objectives for a swift start to the term are clear: to start the ball-rolling on their Leader, Rhun ap Iorweth, being appointed First Minister by the King. Importantly, the vote in the Senedd on nominating an individual as First Minister-designate can only happen after MSs have chosen a Llywydd (Presiding Officer) and Dirprwy Llywydd (Deputy Presiding Officer).

First things first: electing a Llywydd and Dirprwy Llywydd

There are apparently two individuals being linked for the role of Llywydd: Huw Irranca-Davies, the outgoing Deputy First Minister; and Paul Davies, a long-serving Conservative MS and former party leader. Speculation surrounding Irranca-Davies and the role was only heightened as a result of Ken Skates emerging, unopposed, as interim Welsh Labour leader on Saturday morning. That leaves the issue of a Dirprwy Llywydd.

The Senedd’s Standing Orders make clear that the two, albeit elected separately, come together as a package. MSs cannot just choose a Llywydd and simply opt not to elect a Deputy. The Standing Orders also make clear that if one comes from an opposition party MS, the other must be from the governing party. This is a matter of fairness: the Llywydd coming from the opposition benches balances out the advantage a governing party would have in terms of Senedd votes (the Llywydd and Deputy are expected to be impartial figures who may only vote in the event of a casting vote or on business where a two-thirds majority is required).

However, there has been some speculation that Plaid Cymru might seek to avoid nominating either a Llywydd or Dirprwy Llywydd candidate. The attractions, given the above paragraph, are obvious for the party: it would effectively reduce the size of the opposition forces in the Senedd for most, if not all, business and reduce the number of opposition MSs it would need to win over for crunch votes.

If this is indeed the plan, there is a slight snag. To disapply the requirement in the Standing Orders for the Llywydd and Dirprwy Llywydd posts to be effectively shared out between the government and an opposition party, two-thirds of MSs would need to agree to such a move. In a 96 seat Senedd, that number is 64 MSs – some 21 more than that currently enjoyed by Plaid. Even if somehow the party secured the unanimous support of the Labour (9 MSs) and Conservative (7 MSs) groups, whilst picking up the support of the Greens (2 MSs) and the sole Liberal Democrat, that takes them to 62 MSs, two short.

Any attempt to change the requirement would require total unity from that diverse coalition of parties and at least 2 Reform MSs to vote in favour. This, to put it mildly, seems quite doubtful. It also shows how markedly different and more difficult, in this much more fragmented Senedd, it will be for any business which requires a super-majority in favour to be successfully passed. The Sixth Senedd, when Labour and Plaid combined had a super-majority, and could thus drive through the wide-ranging Senedd reform package, seems a distant memory.

Voting for a First Minister

Once a Llywydd and Dirprwy Llywydd have been elected, then MSs can move on to the business of nominating a candidate for appointment as First Minister by the King. If this is a contested election, then there will be a roll call of MSs to choose between the rival candidates. If there are two candidates, then it is simply a case of whichever candidate polls the most votes. In the event of a tie, as famously happened in 2016 when Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood secured an equal number of votes on the first vote, a further roll call vote must occur. If more than two candidates are nominated, the winner must secure more votes than all of the other candidates combined if they are to avoid further roll call votes. Officially, MSs have 28 days after the election (so until 3 June) to successfully nominate a First Minister or face a further general election.

Once a nominee has been chosen by the Senedd, the Llywydd then communicates this decision to the King for their approval. Once the King has approved the appointment, the new First Minister will swear the oath and can begin the process of formally appointing the rest of their ministerial team – thanks to the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024, the number of ministers (excluding the First Minister and Counsel General) has been expanded from 12 to 17.