After the devastation and turbulence of the Great Depression and the Second World War, the Welsh economy in the 1950s entered a period of relative stability and affluence. With low unemployment, stable prices, and rising prosperity, the period has been described as a \u201cGolden Age\u201d for western European economies. In 1957, Harold Macmillan famously declared that most people had \u201cnever had it so good\u201d.<\/p>\n
Back in \u201958, Wales was a<\/strong> country of 2.6 million people<\/strong>. Amazingly, due to huge outward migration during the inter-war period, the Welsh population was still around 4% (or some 122,000) short of its 1925 peak. Out-migration would persist until the 1970s, perhaps explaining the prevalence of Welsh parents and grandparents of footballers born outside of Wales. This has only reversed in recent decades as inward migration has offset slower natural change in the population (i.e., births minus deaths).<\/p>\n The early post-war years saw the UK government engage in unprecedented regional economic intervention, subsidising industries and compelling them to locate in Wales. In his highly recommended book, From Depression to Devolution<\/em>, Leon Gooberman described the resulting increase in employment levels as \u201cthe most ambitious, and successful, achievement of regional policy\u201d.[1]<\/a> Such interventions set Wales off on its post-war economic trajectory, and our economy was grew faster than the UK average throughout the 1950s.[2]<\/a><\/p>\n The 64 years since 1958 has seen a significant relative decline in Welsh economic output per person compared to UK and European averages. However, a rough estimate suggests Wales\u2019 GDP in 2022 has grown by 254% since 1958.<\/strong> [3]<\/a> After accounting for growth in the Welsh population, GDP per person has grown by 190% (almost tripling) since Wales\u2019 last World Cup appearance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Not surprisingly given everything we know about Welsh economic history, the composition of Wales\u2019 GDP by industry has changed dramatically. The primary sectors of mining and quarrying (10%) and agriculture (5%) still accounted for a major share of Wales\u2019 GDP in 1958,[4]<\/a> compared to just 1% by 2020. The share of GDP from metal manufacturing has fallen from 12% to 2%, while all other manufacturing has fallen from 20% to 13%.<\/p>\n The service sector has taken its place, in particular, the share of GDP accounted for by health and education has grown from 4% in 1958 to 18% in 2020<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The 1950s saw a rapid increase in consumer spending in Wales, particularly on durable consumer goods \u2013 for example, the number of cars licensed in Wales rose from 90,200 to 240,000.[5]<\/a><\/p>\n Comparing consumer spending then and now gives us an useful indicator of how life has changed since 1958. In a milestone study of the Welsh economy, Nevin et al. (1966) estimated that consumer expenditure per person in 1958 was \u00a3272<\/strong>. By 2018, this had grown to \u00a317,568 per person \u2013 a near quadrupling after accounting for CPI inflation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n What Welsh families spend their money on has also dramatically changed. Spending on food accounted for more than a third of all consumer expenditure in 1956, and alcohol and tobacco purchases added another 14%<\/strong>. These shares had fallen to just 9% and 4% respectively by 2018.<\/p>\n Today, we spend relatively more on housing and transport, and a lot more on recreation and culture.<\/p>\n Wales last took part in a World Cup during a period of relative price stability. Inflation had dropped far below previous post-war highs and remained well-below levels that would be seen in the 1970s and 1980s. Consumer price inflation was 2.9% in 1958, compared with 10.1% in 2022.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Despite so much labour market turmoil in Welsh history, unemployment levels in 1958 (3.8%) were remarkably similar to those of today (3.7%) – although back then they were elevated compared to the standards of the time and a cause for concern.[6]<\/a><\/p>\n Where people worked has changed enormously. In 1958, manufacturing accounted for 22% of Welsh employment, and a further 9% were employed in metal manufacturing<\/strong>. Five huge industrial estates at Treforest, Bridgend, Hirwaun, Fforestfach and Wrexham were home to 60,000 workers by 1958.[7]<\/a> Manufacturing employment would continue to grow for another decade before starting its long post-industrial decline to about 10% of employment today.<\/p>\n After a steep decline in the coal trade during the inter-war years, employment in mining continued to shrink during the 1950s, with 32 pits shutting in South Wales from 1951 and 1958. That said, 14% of Welsh employees were still employed in mining and quarrying at the time of the 1958 World Cup<\/strong>. This share had fallen to 5% by the time of Joe Jordan\u2019s handball in 1977 and had all but disappeared by the time of Paul Bodin\u2019s missed penalty in 1993.<\/p>\n Another trend of the 1950s which has not reversed was the rapid expansion of female employment, one of the biggest drivers of Welsh economic growth since 1958. Only 28 per cent of Welsh women aged fifteen and over were in paid employment at the time, with Wales significantly lagging the UK average in this regard.<\/p>\n The female employment rate has doubled between Wales\u2019 two World Cup appearances<\/strong>, to 56%, as shown in Figure 3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In contrast, despite a growing Welsh male population, there were more men in employment in Wales during the 1958 World Cup than there will be during Qatar 2022<\/strong>.<\/p>\n ***<\/p>\n Of all the striking differences between the Welsh economy in 1958 and 2022, perhaps the largest is the prospects for economic growth.<\/p>\n The economic backdrop for the 1958 World Cup appearance was one of (almost) full employment, sustained economic growth and rising prosperity. Qatar 2022 takes place after more than a decade-long stagnation in living standards, gloomy forecasts amidst a cost-of-living crisis, with productivity growth at its lowest rate in 250 years.[8]<\/a><\/p>\n For more than one reason, the Welsh economy is highly unlikely to triple in size before Wales\u2019 next appearance at a World Cup\u2026<\/p>\n ***<\/p>\n Os hoffech ddysgu mwy am wahanol agweddau o economi Cymru, ddoe a heddiw, mae deunydd dysgu digidol ar gael o\u2019r Coleg Cymraeg yma: https:\/\/www.porth.ac.uk\/cy\/collection\/economi-cymru<\/a> <\/em><\/p>\n [1]<\/a> Gooberman (2017) From Depression to Devolution: Economy and Government in Wales, 1934-2006<\/u>, Cardiff: University of Wales Press.<\/p>\n [2]<\/a> Nevin, E. (1966) \u201cThe Growth of the Welsh Economy\u201d, The Transactions of the Honourable Society of Cymrodorion 1966<\/u>, pp. 134-148.<\/p>\n [3]<\/a> This estimate combines Bank of England historic data with estimates of Wales\u2019 GDP per person from Greary, F. and T. Stark (2016) \u201cWhat happened to regional inquality in Britain in the twentieth century?\u2019, The Economic History Review<\/u>, 69(1), pp.214-228.<\/p>\n [4]<\/a> Nevin , E., Roe, A. R. and J. I. Round (1966) The Structure of the Welsh Economy<\/u>, Welsh Economic Studies No. 4, Cardiff: University of Wales Press.<\/p>\n [5]<\/a> Thomas, B. (1962) \u2018Conclusion\u2019, IN: B. Thomas (ed.) The Welsh Economy: Studies in Expansion<\/u>, Cardiff: University of Wales Press, pp. 198<\/p>\n [6]<\/a> https:\/\/api.parliament.uk\/historic-hansard\/commons\/1958\/jul\/31\/unemployment-in-wales<\/a><\/p>\n [7]<\/a> Johnes, M. (2012) Wales Since 1939<\/u>, Manchester: Manchester University Press.<\/p>\nConsumer spending and living standards<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Figure 1: Broad comparisons of household\/consumer expenditure by category, 1956 and 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/509\/2022\/11\/1958_figure_1-1.png\")
<\/p>\nSource: Nevin, E. (1957) The Social Accounts of the Welsh Economy, 1948 to 1956<\/u>, Welsh Economic Studies No. 2, Aberystwyth: University College of Wales; Office for National Statistics (2020) Regional Household Final Consumption Expenditure<\/em><\/h6>\n
The rise and fall of Welsh manufacturing \u2013 employment since 1958<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Figure 2: Employment by sector, Wales, 1945-2021<\/strong>
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/509\/2022\/11\/1958_figure_2-1.png\")
<\/h4>\nSource: Williams (1985) Digest of Welsh Historical Statistics, Vol.1 pp.135-9; Digest of Welsh Histor<\/em>ical Statistics, 1974-1996, pp.139-9; ONS via NOMIS; and authors\u2019 calculations<\/em><\/h6>\n
Figure 3: Employment rates by gender, 1951-2021<\/strong>
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/509\/2022\/11\/1958_figure_3-1.png\")
<\/h4>\nSource: Digest of Welsh Historical Statistics, Vol.1; Digest of Welsh Historical Statistics, 1974-1996; ONS via NOMIS; and authors\u2019 calculations. Note: 2021* not a census estimate<\/em><\/h6>\n