{"id":108,"date":"2016-10-12T09:24:03","date_gmt":"2016-10-12T09:24:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/?p=108"},"modified":"2022-04-13T17:25:11","modified_gmt":"2022-04-13T16:25:11","slug":"gender-and-representation-in-national-assembly-for-wales-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/gender-and-representation-in-national-assembly-for-wales-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Gender and Representation in National Assembly for Wales Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"
In 2003, the National Assembly for Wales made waves worldwide as the first legislature to achieve 50:50 gender balance. Having shown such swift progress on equal representation, the Assembly has enjoyed a reputation as an institution more progressive – and representative – than Westminster. Yet in the years since, we\u2019ve already begun to see the Assembly\u2019s progress rolled back. \u00a0This year, Electoral Reform Society (ERS) Cymru rang alarm bells ahead of NAfW elections in a report that warned of a \u2018stagnating Senedd\u2019. By analysing electoral commission data for every candidate to run for the Assembly over its 17 year history, we will interrogate whether<\/span> the numbers back up the Senedd\u2019s reputation as an institution that reflects Wales in the 21st century, or if there\u2019s a more serious threat looming to gender-equal representation in Wales. <\/span><\/figure>\n
Following a by-election in 2006, female AMs outnumbered their male counterparts in the Senedd for a brief period – neatly reflecting Wales\u2019 demography by women making up 52% of elected representatives. <\/span>Ten years later, ERS Cymru has identified a high risk to women\u2019s representation in Wales in the run up to 2016\u2019s Senedd race. In a <\/span>report published in April<\/span><\/a>, ERS raised concerns that 10 of 11 identified \u2018battleground constituencies\u2019 were to be defended by female candidates – posing a substantial risk to the gender balance of the Assembly.<\/span>The same report identified male incumbents defending 21 of the 29 constituency \u2018safe seats\u2019. In 2016\u2019s <\/span>Women in the National Assembly<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/i>report, Professor<\/span> Laura Mcallister made the astute observation that a new \u2018<\/span>incumbency overhang<\/span><\/a>\u2019 was slowing the pace of change for gender parity in Wales. We hope that <\/span>by plotting out each of the 5 main parties\u2019 gender records for both candidates and elected AMs, we can identify to what extent the Senedd is moving away from its early progress to emulate a Westminster-like model of male-incumbency.<\/span><\/figure>\n
\n
\"Graph<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n
\"Graph<\/figure>\n
Graph A shows that over the Assembly\u2019s history, male candidates have outnumbered female 2:1. Graph B, however, shows that the ratio improves significantly when we look at elected AMs, moving much closer to an even gender split. In light of this difference we need to take a closer look at individual parties to discern where this corrective effect emerges from – and to assess its sustainability.<\/span><\/figure>\n

Breakdown by Party<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Graph<\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

An analysis of the 5 main parties\u2019 constituency candidates by gender reveals Labour considerably ahead of its competitors in terms of women\u2019s candidacy (indeed running more women candidates than men in 2003 & 2007 races). By contrast the Liberal Democrats flatline around 30% whilst within Plaid and the Conservatives\u2019 men outnumber women 4:1. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

UKIP takes the wooden spoon, however, having stood 0 women candidates in 2007 – though some consideration must be given to the fact that they didn\u2019t stand in constituency races in 1999 or 2011, reducing their total cohort of candidates. <\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Graph<\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

By analysing candidacy at regional list level we can gain a closer understanding of what function proportional representation plays in \u2018topping up\u2019 a gender deficit. Graph D shows Plaid make considerable improvements through party lists, whilst Labour are again close to gender parity. The Conservatives and UKIP fare particularly badly again, revealing a more profound lack of female candidates. All parties still fall short of 50:50 – suggesting a \u2018pipeline problem\u2019 in the movement of women candidates through party structures to selection.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Graph<\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

By taking a look at elected Assembly Members, we are able to compare party candidacy across Wales with their ability to secure women\u2019s representation through an effective selection process. <\/span><\/p>\n

At first glance the Lib Dems display seemingly impressive results across constituency races, but in reality this is more of a reflection of \u00a0their consistent struggle to win constituency seats (they have only ever elected two women AMs, Kirsty Williams and Jenny Randerson). Similarly, Trish Law single-handedly boosts women\u2019s representation in independent candidacies by winning a by-election and re-election in Blaenau Gwent. However, more generally, just 17.5% of Independent and Minor party candidates are women, suggesting that Trish Law\u2019s accomplishments are outliers from the general trend. Labour are, again, the only party to hit and exceed the 50:50 standard, having elected more women through both constituency and list seats.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/b><\/p>\n

The numbers show that Wales\u2019 progress on gender representation relies heavily on one factor: the enduring success of Welsh Labour. Although other parties have made use of proportional representation at the Assembly to effectively \u2018top-up\u2019 on women candidates through regional lists, this is not a sustainable means of ensuring balanced representation. Plaid Cymru demonstrate this pattern most strongly, with a low representation at the constituency level that is counterbalanced by progress on the list.<\/p>\n

Labour\u2019s achievement too must be cautioned, in that it is reliant on Labour continuing to return a steady number of AMs, despite facing a 7.6% drop in constituency vote share in 2016. Although their continued dominance of the Assembly has enabled the party to enjoy a greater candidate pool and a greater selection of seats to elect women, ERS Cymru\u2019s 2016 report reveals the fragility of even Labour\u2019s progress. If the trend of Labour\u2019s \u2018safe\u2019 seats returning male candidates continues in tandem with women incumbents defending battleground constituencies, Labour too may see their progressed dashed by a creeping \u2018incumbency overhang.\u2019 The continued dominance of male candidates through every other party – through both constituency and list candidacy – reveals a fragile picture behind the women with a seat in the Senedd.<\/span><\/p>\n

For Wales to ensure it maintains progress on gender parity – and its reputation as a more representative body than Westminster – it will require every major party to correct for gender imbalance where it exists. Whether this be through through all-women shortlists, twinned constituencies, zipping or another proven method, it\u2019s clear that without a gear-shift women\u2019s representation in the Senedd will be increasingly fragile. <\/span><\/p>\n

This blog was co-written with Rachel Statham. Rachel is Political Campaigns Coordinator at the Women’s Equality Party and tweets at @rachelstatham_<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In 2003, the National Assembly for Wales made waves worldwide as the first legislature to achieve 50:50 gender balance. Having shown such swift progress on equal representation, the Assembly has […]","protected":false},"author":1044,"featured_media":116,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[26,32,31,41],"tags":[37,13,34,33,36,39,10,35,40,38,5],"class_list":["post-108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-british-politics","category-elections","category-gender","category-welsh-elections","tag-conservative","tag-devolution","tag-elections","tag-gender","tag-labour","tag-liberal-democrats","tag-national-assembly-for-wales","tag-plaid-cymru","tag-representation","tag-ukip","tag-wales"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8iFWs-1K","meta_box":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/509\/2016\/10\/Graph-A-1.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1044"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":134,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108\/revisions\/134"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.cardiff.ac.uk\/thinking-wales\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}