Labour’s October Budget – Fit for the Future?

The long-awaited budget, delivered by the Labour Party’s first female Chancellor, has finally been unveiled. Speculation was rife about its content, with media and analysts anticipating tax hikes to address what the Chancellor described as a “£22 billion black hole” in public finances. This deficit, she noted, reflects years of underinvestment and current economic challenges. Prime Minister Keir Starmer had primed the public for a “painful” budget, framing it as a necessary step for sustainable, long-term growth. 

With the Prime Minister’s commitment not to raise taxes on “working people,” ongoing discussions have emerged about what this truly means. As the budget unfolds, media and think tanks have offered contrasting analyses, with interpretations often shaped by political perspectives. In this article, I aim to take a broader, medium-term view (5-10 years), reflecting on how this budget might shape the Labour government’s legacy in public services, fiscal management, and stakeholder impact. 

1. Public Sector Provision

Labour won the recent election on a platform committed to enhancing public services, particularly in areas like the NHS, education, and public transport, where public dissatisfaction has been high. The Labour government’s mandate to improve these services inherently requires an increase in public spending, and thus, tax rises were anticipated. By the end of this parliamentary term, Labour will likely be judged on a straightforward question: Are public services better than they were five years ago? 

If the answer is a clear “yes,” the Labour government might benefit electorally. However, the experience of the previous Conservative government, which left office with record-high tax burdens yet declining public services, shows this outcome is far from guaranteed. The Chancellor can take solace in the fact that, despite two rounds of national insurance contribution cuts under the previous government, public support for Conservatives remained largely unchanged. This experience may signal that voters expect tangible service improvements rather than lower tax burdens, shaping a key focus area for Labour in the coming years. 

2. Public Sector Productivity

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal that public sector productivity continues to lag significantly behind the private sector, with this gap widening in recent years. The substantial increases in spending outlined in this budget—funded through both tax hikes and additional borrowing—will only improve service quality if they lead to tangible productivity gains. Investments in technology, especially within the NHS, have been highlighted as crucial in bridging this productivity gap, but delivering on these promises will be critical. 

This focus is even more essential given that much of the public spending increase is “front-loaded,” with large allocations in the first year and slower growth in later years. Without a noticeable improvement in productivity, the government could face pressure to implement further tax increases or spending cuts, which would be politically challenging. Improving public sector productivity is essential for maintaining service quality without resorting to unsustainable fiscal measures. 

3. Public-Private Investment

The Labour government has also expressed its intention to raise taxes to fund public-sector-led investment as a driver for economic growth. This approach diverges from the previous government’s focus on reducing public spending. Initiatives such as the National Wealth Fund and GB Energy are ambitious but come with significant uncertainties. While evidence from successful public investment models—like Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund—suggests public investment can yield long-term benefits, cautionary tales, such as the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) scandals, underscore the need for transparency and accountability. 

Labour’s strategy may avoid these pitfalls by ensuring risks are fairly shared between the public and private sectors, rather than leaving taxpayers to bear the brunt of potential financial failures. Successfully executed, these initiatives could enhance infrastructure, create jobs, and foster sustainable growth. However, proper oversight and risk management will be essential to avoid repeating past mistakes. 

4. Fiscal Drag

A practice that chancellors since Gordon Brown have frequently resorted to, fiscal drag refers to the practice of freezing tax thresholds, allowing inflation to increase tax revenue without overtly raising rates. While the Chancellor’s decision to let the personal allowance rise with inflation from 2028/29 is commendable, the delay means that for the foreseeable future, more taxpayers will face higher effective tax burdens as wages rise with inflation, but tax thresholds do not. 

Particularly concerning is the freeze on Individual Savings Account (ISA) allowances until 2030 and inheritance tax thresholds, which may push more households into higher tax brackets over time due to inflation alone. As a result, individuals may experience a gradual erosion of purchasing power without a clear understanding of why this is happening. A hallmark of a confident, robust economy is the regular adjustment of tax thresholds in line with inflation, preventing fiscal drag from quietly increasing tax burdens over time. 

5. Alignment with Government Priorities

The budget should be commended for aligning tax increases with clear public spending priorities in areas such as transportation, education, and healthcare. However, the absence of notable tax relief measures—apart from a modest cut in draught duty—means the government relies heavily on service improvements to validate its fiscal policy. This approach contrasts with the previous government’s strategy of implementing “tax sweeteners” to garner public approval, and Labour’s success will hinge on demonstrable improvements in public services. 

That said, some budget choices—such as maintaining the fuel duty cut—may appear at odds with Labour’s commitment to combating climate change. While the budget does levy new taxes on wealthier segments of society, incentives to reduce carbon emissions are limited, aside from a proposal to widen tax benefits for electric vehicles and increase air passenger duty for private jets. Aligning fiscal policy with environmental goals may require further adjustments to ensure coherence between economic and climate agendas. 

6. Unintended Consequences

Tax hikes, by nature, have potential repercussions on economic growth, but this piece will focus on less obvious consequences. One example is the impact of inheritance tax thresholds on family-owned farms, as the freeze at £1 million could bring more family farms into the tax net over time, potentially compromising the UK’s food security. It could also have social costs – for example, it could push small farms toward selling or consolidation, increasing the dominance of larger agribusinesses with fewer community ties. 

Additionally, the introduction of an effective 20% inheritance tax on Uk stocks listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) could reduce investment in this sector, impacting smaller firms’ ability to raise capital. These consequences, while perhaps unintentional, may have long-term implications for both the farming sector and financial markets, areas that require careful monitoring to assess the broader impact of the budget 

7. Conclusion

There is only so much that can be concluded from the budget. Your judgement of its adequacy to the situation depends on your judgements of public spending, taxes, and welfare, but here are some fairly uncontroversial conclusions.  

The chancellor’s budget aimed to strike a balance between increasing public spending and fostering a favourable business environment. Although not everyone may agree with these choices, she has largely succeeded in this endeavour. However, whether this budget will position the UK as the fastest-growing economy in the G7 by the end of this parliament remains uncertain, especially given the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of growth not exceeding 2% during this period and a projected real terms fall in disposable income by the end of this parliament.

Fortunately, there are several avenues the chancellor can explore beyond mere tax and spending adjustments. These include reforming planning laws to accelerate infrastructure projects, fostering a climate-friendly investment environment, tackling issues like shoplifting and other social challenges, advancing regional devolution, and implementing immigration policies that attract talent to the UK.