Welsh Housing Monitor

The Welsh Housing Monitor is like an audit of where we are in Wales, or (as it states in the introduction) the state of the housing nation and, one should add, statistically speaking.  Because, in a way, one of the stand out statistics is that for some aspects of the housing nation, we know a lot.  Take, for example, the number of new low carbon social homes in this Senedd term.  By various measures, we know how many such homes have been delivered, and can make projections.  On the other hand, however, it’s a bit of a thumb in the air about the number pf private sector homes delivered.  The statistics suggest something of a decline in production over previous years, but it is hard to tell because the statistical base may undercount or overcount depending on what you are using.  Similarly, although we have the oldest housing stock in the UK, the last available data on the percentage of dwellings free from Category 1 hazards is from 2017-18 (82%).  We know how many assessments are carried out per annum, and we also know that there are significant spatial variations.  As the Monitor tells us (at [63]):

“The highest number of assessments was carried out in Cardiff (1,404) and Swansea (620). By contrast, fewer than 100 assessments were carried out in nine of 22 local authorities (Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Carmarthenshire, Flintshire, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Torfaen, Wrexham and Vale of Glamorgan).”

But, we also know that various factors relating to reporting and then discretionary decisions to inspect underpin those outcomes, including the fact that it may be easier to deal with HMOs, and the reluctance to inspect social landlord properties as well as owner-occupied ones.  I have written about this before, but imho a duty on local authorities to enforce housing legislation is going to be of more value to the everyday lives of occupiers than a right to housing.

Affordability is a major issue, at least in some areas of Wales: “According to the latest figures for 2022 to 2024, 15 per cent of Welsh households have housing costs above the threshold ” of spending more than 30% of their income on housing costs.  When this is broke down by tenure, however, “Some 37 per cent of private tenants and 36 per cent of social tenants are spending more than 30 per cent of their income on housing costs, compared to 8 per cent of owners with a mortgage and 3 per cent of outright owners” ([112]).  The fall in social housing possession claims is said to be “consistent with their commitment under the rent standard not to evict tenants due to financial hardship where they are engaging with their landlord” ([154]).  That having been said, the stats on rent arrears in the social sector are eye-watering.  It is said that about half of social tenancies are in rent arrears, but, again, there is geographical variation: “Across Wales, the highest percentage of social housing tenancies in arrears was seen in Newport (64 per cent) and the lowest in Powys (31 per cent)” ([157]).  I would suggest that these statistics need some explanation because it is not altogether apparent why that should be the case.  Equally, 10,156 tenancies had rent arrears of more than 13 weeks, which is put down to the no eviction commitment.  In this era of rent maximisation and marketised social housing, I wonder how sustainable that will be in the long term – it does make the election outcome particularly important.

There are also few private landlord and mortgage possession claims (when compared with 2007-14).  My hunch here is that few people resist these types of claim, so that “moving on” is a coping strategy rather than engaging in or with the law.  A recent paper looking at Zurich and Berlin (reference below) suggests that people tend to lump their rights when markets are competitive, even when they know the law; but, as I say, my hunch is also that a proportion simply do not know their rights or would rather just move on.

However, the Monitor is a reminder that there is also a lot going on around building safety, WHQS, the forthcoming housing survey, changes to homelessness law etc etc.