What the Welsh Polls Say (and have said)27 April 2015
Well, it’s getting close now. There are just ten days to go to the general election. (And yes, I know what you are all thinking: if only campaigns could last longer).
While there will continue to be a plethora of GB-wide opinion polls right up until the eve of poll, here in Wales we are unlikely to have any further ones until the next Welsh Political Barometer poll, which should be published on the evening of 6th May.
You can find substantial detail about the various polls that have been conducted in Wales in recent times in the Opinion Polls section of the Blog; I have also discussed them in numerous posts. But I thought that it might be useful to some blog readers – never say I don’t think of you – to provide some summary information on what the Welsh polls have been saying in relatively accessible and concise form.
So here, first of all, are the average general election poll ratings of the main five parties in Wales between 2012-2014. As we can see, the only substantial trend during those years was the decline in Labour support and the rise of UKIP:
Average Poll Ratings for Westminster General Election, Wales
These are the polls conducted before the start of the campaign in 2015:
Pre-campaign Welsh Opinion Polls During 2015
|Party||January||January||Early March||Mid-Late March|
And these are the polls that have been conducted during the official campaign itself:
Welsh Opinion Polls During the Campaign*
* All polls conducted by YouGov. Dates listed for polls are dates when fieldwork was completed.
Finally, here is a summary of the main findings from the Ashcroft constituency polls for the five Welsh constituencies that he has looked at. (In the case of Cardiff North he actually polled it twice; I’ve reported the more recent set of figures). Numbers here are for the question asked in these polls that asked people how they would vote in their specific constituency:
Ashcroft Constituency Polls (changes on 2010 result in each constituency)
|Constituency (Fieldwork dates)||Labour||Cons||LibDems||Plaid||UKIP||Greens|
|Cardiff North (July 14)||41 (+4)||30 (-8)||6 (-12)||8 (+5)||12 (+10)||3 (+2)|
|Cardiff Central (Sept 14)||36 (+7)||17 (-5)||24 (-17)||9 (+6)||9 (+7)||5 (+3)|
|Brecon & Radnor (Nov 14)||15 (+5)||27 (-9)||31 (-15)||8 (+6)||17 (+15)||1 (+1)|
|Carmarthen West & South Pembs (Dec 14)||29 (-4)||33 (-8)||4 (-12)||16 (+6)||14 (+11)||3 (+3)|
|Vale of Glamorgan (Feb 15)||32 (-1)||38 (-4)||4 (-11)||12 (+6)||10 (+7)||3 (+2)|
Non-partisan thoughts on elections, voting and political representation from Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University.