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Wales Political Barometer, new poll!

17 February 2014

The latest results from the second Welsh Political Barometer poll have now been released!

You can find the main results of the poll here; and a slightly lengthier discussion of the voting intention figures by me, on the ITV Wales website here.

Much more later in the week!

Up-date, 19/02/14: The detailed cross-tabs of the results from all of the Barometer questions are now available here.


  1. Jon Jones

    Heaven is a place where nothing ever happens……

    What would change voting intentions in Wales I wonder…….no real media attention to politics, indeed political parties pretty much in agreement on many matters, so not much to report anyway.

    I saw that UKIP has broken the political concensus on devolution of tax raising powers so there’s hope of some dissent after the next Assembly elections. Even those of us who are tribal Labour voters are tired of the lack of vigorous opposition.

  2. Jon Jones

    Still a mystery how the Silk Commission managed to get the ICM poll of 2000 people to say that 64% supported devolution of income tax raising powers.

    Is it really conceivable that the figure for support of such a measure has fallen to 31% in such a short time?

    Now we have the situation where the main parties all agree that Income tax raising powers should be devolved (with certain caveats) and only UKIP publicly comes out and echoes the majority view in Wales.

    Am I the only one who sees the dislocation between the politicians in Wales and public opinion as dangerous?

  3. Jon Jones

    It does occur to me however that some while back I commented on this blog that the Silk polls had too much internal context to the questions. In particular I noted that if you ask National Identity questions there is a link to an increase in those willing to assert that they speak Welsh. I floated the idea that there was reason to speculate that these types of questions, that assert national difference, would polarise opinion amongst those questioned and that such polarisation would result in inflated percentages of people favouring further devolution.

    I did say at one point that I could devise a poll that would increase the percentage against further devolution simply by including questions on the WG’s past performance on Education, the NHS and Economy.

    Coincidentally that is just what this poll has done. What would be interesting to know is whether the questions about past performance of the government on those major areas was asked before or after the question on devolution of tax raising powers. Was the order varied and, if it was, was there a difference in the percentage against income tax devolution between the “before” and “after” cohorts ?

  4. Roger Scully

    Thanks for your comments, and continued interest Jon. Sorry to rush a reply, but it’s a hectic week! On your very last point – see the detailed poll results now posted. The questions are listed in the order they were asked.

  5. Jon Jones

    So the competency questions didn’t taint these outcomes. It’s striking how disengaged women are from politics in Wales. What’s it like UK wide?

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