Voting Intentions for the Welsh Assembly27 November 2019
The latest Welsh Political Barometer poll also included our standard vote intention questions for a devolved election. While people will understand that these are a somewhat lower priority at the moment, they are still important for the future shape of devolved politics in Wales.
Here are the constituency voting intention figures (with changes from our last poll, three weeks previously, indicated in brackets):
Labour: 32% (+5)
Conservative: 26% (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 20% (-1)
Brexit Party: 11% (-3)
Liberal Democrats: 7% (-3)
Greens: 4% (-)
Others: 1% (-)
Using the standard uniform national swing assumption, the changes since the May 2016 National Assembly election implied by this poll lead to five constituency seats being projected to change hands. All are seats won by Labour in 2016: Gower, the Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan, and Wrexham, are all projected to be won by the Conservatives, while Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Llanelli.
Meanwhile, the regional list vote figures (with changes since the previous poll again in brackets) are:
Labour: 29% (+6)
Conservative: 26% (+3)
Plaid Cymru: 21% (-)
Brexit Party: 9% (-4)
Liberal Democrats: 7% (-2)
Greens: 4% (-1)
Others: 2% (-4)
Once again assuming uniform national swings since 2016, and taking into account the constituency seat results already projected, this gives us the following projected outcome for the regional list seats:
North Wales: 1 Conservative, 1 Brexit Party, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Labour
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Brexit Party
South Wales West: 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1 Brexit Party
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Brexit Party, 1 Plaid Cymru
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Brexit Party, 1 Plaid Cymru
This then generates the following overall projected outcome:
Labour: 25 seats (22 constituency + 3 list)
Conservatives: 17 seats (10 constituency + 7 list)
Plaid Cymru: 12 seats (7 constituency + 5 list)
Brexit Party: 5 seats (5 list)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)
Clearly, the rise in support for the Conservative and Labour parties during the general election campaign seems to be having some impact on the figures we are getting for the devolved context as well. Given that context, Plaid Cymru’s poll ratings is holding up well, while the Brexit Party are also still very much ‘in the game’ as a potentially significant force. This is, though, a rather disappointing poll for the Liberal Democrats.
Non-partisan thoughts on elections, voting and political representation from Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University.