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Up-Dates to Opinion Polls Section

6 October 2014


The more eagle-eyed amongst you may have noticed that I have made one or two small changes to the site over the last few days.

Most importantly, I have made some up-dates and improvements to the Opinion Polls section. I’d encourage you to look at that to see for yourself, but in brief what I have done is the following:

  • I’ve both up-dated and improved – I hope – the charts on voting intention. For both the general election and Assembly constituency vote charts, I decided that it made most sense for the charts to look at changes since the last election. So for the general election chart, the first data point is the May 2010 general election result in Wales; all subsequent ones are the opinion polls conducted since then. For the Assembly constituency vote chart, the first data point is the May 2011 result; again, all subsequent data points are from the following opinion polls
  • For the chart on regional list voting intentions, there is a problem: as discussed in a previous blog post , the changes in question wording that happened twice after the May 2011 election introduce considerable ‘noise’ into the signal offered by the polls. I have therefore chosen to present a chart giving the figures only from December 2013, when the current question wording used by YouGov was adopted.
  • For all these charts, the small chart visible on the screen should expand into a much larger chart if you click on it. Let me know if this doesn’t work for anyone.
  • The detailed figures on which the charts are all based, as well as the figures for earlier polls, are listed below the set of charts in Section 2 of the Opinion Polls page. There are links to several PDF documents here. This section also contains figures for a few opinion polls that have asked about National Assembly voting intention without specifying intentions for the constituency and list vote; and also figures from those polls which have asked about European Parliament election voting intentions in Wales.
  • If that were not enough to get you through the long winter evenings, Section 2 also contains links to PDF documents giving you the figures for all polls I am aware of that have asked about voting intentions in referendums: those conducted prior to the March 2011 referendum on greater powers for the National Assembly; the potential referendum on income-tax powers for the National Assembly recommended by the Silk Commission; and a potential referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union.
  • Finally, I have also up-dated Section 3 of this page. This section contains links to a number of PDF documents with the detailed top-line results of major opinion polls conducted in Wales over the last year and a half. These include all the Welsh Political Barometer polls (up to and including the most recent one, conducted in September) and the most recent poll conducted by ICM for BBC Wales.

 Have fun exploring all this information!



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