In view of the now forthcoming general election, I have put together some initial thoughts on the places in Wales where the election will be won and lost.
You can read those thoughts here:
About this blog
Non-partisan thoughts on elections, voting and political representation from Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University.
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Comments
I’m not sure why you’ve left off Dwyfor Meirionnydd – on the numbers, it would take a smaller swing for Plaid Cymru to lose that than for them to gain Llanelli. That quite nicely illustrates the scale of their problem.
Results day will be Friday the 13th – bound to be unlucky for some!
I would say Cardiff Central looks a much better bet for the Liberals than you suggest. Although Labour’s majority is big it’s got a history of being a rather volatile seat and has voted Liberal by large majorities in the recent past, and if anywhere in Wales is receptive to a strong pro-Remain stance it’s a university seat in Cardiff. You’d also expect Labour to lose far more votes than the Liberals do to Con and Brexit.
Cardiff central is student land so if they’ve gone home the vote can go anywhere.