Voting Intentions for the National Assembly: the Latest Evidence

Posted on 28 April 2017 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Given the snap general election called last week, attention on the findings from our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll has understandably focussed on the – rather sensational – results about general election voting intention that the poll produced. However, the Barometer has continued to enquire about voting intentions at the devolved level, and this post
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The New Welsh Political Barometer Poll: Other General Election Findings

Posted on 27 April 2017 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

The Welsh Political Barometer poll, published on Monday, certainly generated lots of interest. Not only was there extensive national and even international press coverage of the general election voting figures; at times on Tuesday it felt like I had spoken to every broadcast media outlet in the UK except for CBeebies… The good news is
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Briefing on the Local Elections

Posted on 26 April 2017 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Yesterday morning I joined my friends John Curtice, Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher to present at the Political Studies Association’s media briefing on next week’s local elections. While the local elections have rather been overtaken by events, they still matter for the control of councils on Wales. Below is the text of what I presented:
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The First Welsh Poll of the General Election

Posted on 24 April 2017 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Something extraordinary could be about to happen. Wales is on the brink of an electoral earthquake. The Conservatives appear to be on course to win the majority of Welsh parliamentary seats for the first time in the democratic era, while Labour faces losing a general election in Wales for the first time since 1918. These
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The 2017 General Election: some first thoughts, and a first seat projection

Posted on 21 April 2017 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

That is not a headline I had expected to put over a blog post. Although I had been saying for months that I thought there was a compelling political logic to Theresa May calling an early election, until Tuesday morning it appeared as if she would not do so. Hence, I had booked this week
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Nominations for the local elections in Wales

Posted on 18 April 2017 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Blog readers will doubtless be aware that the local elections are coming up soon. (May 4th, to be precise). Nominations have now closed, and my friend Harry Hayfield has undertaken the laborious task of not only totally all the nominations by party, but also comparing the total with the numbers of candidates that each party
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The 2016 Welsh Election Study Live!

Posted on 10 April 2017 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Blogging will be a bit quiet for the next couple of weeks, as I recharge the psephological batteries over Easter, and get myself ready for the next Welsh Political Barometer poll, which should be arriving in later April. In the meantime – I thought at least some of you might like to be aware of
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New Cardiff University Brexit Blog!

Posted on 3 April 2017 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

As some of you may have noticed, the process of Brexit is moving forward, with Article 50 having been formally triggered by the UK Government. Whatever we may think of Brexit, this is undoubtedly a very important development for Wales, the UK, and Europe as a whole. There are, of course, many academics studying various
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