I’ve again up-dated this post, this time to include the figures from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll.
| Poll | % Remain | % Leave | % DK/ NV | % ‘Remain’ Lead |
| ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013a | 42 | 35 | 22 | 7 |
| Western Mail/Beaufort, June 2013b | 29 | 37 | 35 | -8 |
| WGC/YouGov, July 2013c | 39 | 40 | 21 | -1 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 2013d | 38 | 40 | 22 | -2 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2014e | 44 | 33 | 23 | 11 |
| Walesonline/YouGov, June 2014f | 41 | 38 | 22 | 3 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, June-July 2014g | 41 | 36 | 24 | 5 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, September 2014h | 43 | 37 | 20 | 6 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 2014i | 42 | 39 | 19 | 3 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, January 2015j | 44 | 36 | 20 | 8 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, early-March 2015k | 43 | 36 | 22 | 7 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, late-March 2015l | 44 | 38 | 18 | 6 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, May 2015m | 47 | 33 | 21 | 14 |
| BES/YouGov, May 2015n | 50 | 33 | 18 | 17 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, June 2015o | 44 | 37 | 19 | 7 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, September 2015p | 42 | 38 | 21 | 4 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 2015q | 40 | 42 | 19 | -2 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, February 2016r | 37 | 45 | 19 | -8 |
| WES/YouGov, March 2016s | 41 | 36 | 24 | 5 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, April 2016t | 38 | 39 | 23 | -1 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, late-April 2016u | 41 | 37 | 22 | 4 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, May 2016v | 41 | 39 | 20 | 2 |
| WES/YouGov, May 2016w | 40 | 39 | 22 | 1 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, June 2016x | 41 | 41 | 18 | 0 |
a. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1007. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
b. Face-to-face poll conducted by Beaufort Research for the Western Mail. Number of respondents = 988; Questions asked: “If there was a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?
c. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff University.. Number of respondents = 1012. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
d. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1001. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
e. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1250. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
f. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for Walesonline. Number of respondents = 2270. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
g. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1035. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
h. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1025. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
i. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1131. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
j. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1036. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
k. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1279. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
l. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1189. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
m. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1202. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
n. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for British Election Study. Number of respondents = 1557. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
o. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1151. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
p. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1010. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
q. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1005. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
r. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1024. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
s. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for the Welsh Election Study. Number of respondents = 3272. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
t. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1011. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
u. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1001. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
v. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1326. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
w. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for the Welsh Election Study. Number of respondents = 3234. Question asked: “If you do vote in the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this is the question, how are you likely to vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
x. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1017. Question asked: ‘There is a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union on the 23rd June and this is the question, how will you vote. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’
Comments
“Across Britain as a whole, telephone polls are currently tending to give Remain a rather clearer lead.”
The discrepencies between national BREXIT polls should have had alarm bells ringing all over the place – if the results for remain suddenly look too good to be true they probably are… Prof. John Curtice, amongst others, has started looking at the samples. This article pulls together much of what has surfaced so far.
REVEALED: How Bad Polling Is Used To Convince People Brexit Support Is Tanking
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/26/questions-raised-anomalous-brexit-polls-showing-massive-leads-remain/
This 2016 EU referendum campaign has been even dirtier than the 1975 campaign (based on what I can recall) so it would not surprise me in the least if push-polling is being employed alongside the rest of the questionable campaign content.
7 ‘Thoughts’ but only one published?
Sorry, I’ve no idea what you are referring to.
Oh I see what you mean now.
The other ‘Thoughts’ were simply other online articles that included a link to this piece. For some reason WordPress shows them up as ‘Thoughts’ – don’t know why.
Thanks, J.
The EU is thatcherite economics on steroids. How can most Welsh, Scottish and Irish people be voting for that? I’m guessing because they don’t have a fucking clue.