After last week’s shenanigans in the Assembly, I thought it might be interesting to remind people of one question that was run in the final, pre-election Welsh Political Barometer poll. This was:
“If Labour does not have an overall majority in the Assembly elected on May 5 but is the biggest party, which of the following would you prefer?”
The following tables shows the responses to the various options among three groups of people: the entire sample, those intending to vote Labour on the constituency vote, and those intending to vote for Plaid Cymru on the constituency vote:
|All Sample||Labour Voters||Plaid Voters|
|A Labour minority government
|A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
|A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
|A Labour-Conservative coalition
|A Labour-UKIP coalition
|A coalition amongst the smaller parties
As we can see, among the whole sample there is no option that commands even close to majority support, and many are undecided. But a Labour-Plaid coalition is clearly the most popular single option. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it is also the option that commands support from a majority of Plaid voters – it’s hardly a shock that those voting for a party would want to see it in government. Probably the most interesting set of findings, though, is that for Labour supporters. Intriguingly, a coalition with Plaid Cymru is also their most favoured option by a long way – more than twice as popular as minority government, and almost five times as favoured as a deal with the Liberal Democrats (the latter being an option that the arithmetic has now rendered largely superfluous).
A Labour-Plaid coalition does not appear to be what we will actually get. Given this, it may be interesting to revisit this question in a few weeks and see what people, and in particular Labour supporters, think of the actual outcome.