Another of my occasional up-dates of the full run of EU referendum polls we have had in Wales. Table below – then footnotes about precise question wording and number of responses in each poll,
Wales, EU Referendum Polls
| Poll | % Remain | % Leave | % DK/ NV | % ‘Remain’ Lead |
| ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013a | 42 | 35 | 22 | 7 |
| Western Mail/Beaufort, June 2013b | 29 | 37 | 35 | -8 |
| WGC/YouGov, July 2013c | 39 | 40 | 21 | -1 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 2013d | 38 | 40 | 22 | -2 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2014e | 44 | 33 | 23 | 11 |
| Walesonline/YouGov, June 2014f | 41 | 38 | 22 | 3 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, June-July 2014g | 41 | 36 | 24 | 5 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, September 2014h | 43 | 37 | 20 | 6 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 2014i | 42 | 39 | 19 | 3 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, January 2015j | 44 | 36 | 20 | 8 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, early-March 2015k | 43 | 36 | 22 | 7 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, late-March 2015l | 44 | 38 | 18 | 6 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, May 2015m | 47 | 33 | 21 | 14 |
| BES/YouGov, May 2015n | 50 | 33 | 18 | 17 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, June 2015o | 44 | 37 | 19 | 7 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, September 2015p | 42 | 38 | 21 | 4 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 2015q | 40 | 42 | 19 | -2 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, February 2016r | 37 | 45 | 19 | -8 |
| WES/YouGov, March 2016s | 41 | 36 | 24 | 5 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, April 2016t | 38 | 39 | 23 | -1 |
| ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, late-April 2016u | 41 | 37 | 22 | 4 |
a. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1007. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
b. Face-to-face poll conducted by Beaufort Research for the Western Mail. Number of respondents = 988; Questions asked: “If there was a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
c. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff University.. Number of respondents = 1012. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
d. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1001. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
e. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1250. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
f. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for Walesonline. Number of respondents = 2270. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
g. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1035. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
h. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1025. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
i. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1131. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
j. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1036. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
k. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1279. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
l. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1189. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
m. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1202. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
n. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for British Election Study. Number of respondents = 1557. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
o. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1151. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
p. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1010. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
q. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1005. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
r. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1024. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
s. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for the Welsh Election Study. Number of respondents = 3272. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
t. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1011. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
u. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1001. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
Comments
Politicalbetting has an EU referendum poll with National splits here:-
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/30/opinum-has-euref-outcome-for-maximum-chaos-england-wales-vote-out-but-scotland-means-its-overall-for-in/
Scotland has been obsessing that they may be dragged out of the EU by England and Wales. On the contrary it seems; Wales and England are inclined to narrowly vote OUT with Scotland voting IN and tipping the balance so that Britain stays IN. The Scottish tail wagging the British dog.
I have a burning question for you Roger related to the rumoured Assembly election sometime soon. I think that we can all agree that Labour will be the biggest party and will poll something like 33%. The exact figure doesn’t really matter. At the moment it looks very much as if Plaid will be the next biggest party and poll somewhere about 21%. Plaid becomes the official opposition; except Plaid then forms a coalition with Labour leaving the Conservatives with 19% of the vote to be the opposition.
However, just because Plaid and Labour have 54% of the vote between them doesn’t mean that 54% would have voted for that coalition or would accept that coalition, indeed if that particular coalition was on the ballot paper perhaps only 30% could consider voting for it. This coalition would leave 70% of the voters unhappy. However if, as last time, only 42% of the electorate votes, what percentage of eligible voters will have elected a Plaid/ Labour government?
Do political “anoraks” like yourself (sorry) ever consider whether the concept of democracy really sits comfortably with the situation in Wales?