Westminster and EU Referendum Figures

In addition to asking about the National Assembly, our new Welsh Political Barometer poll has also continued to run questions about voting intentions for both Westminster and the EU Referendum. Here are the results.

First, for Westminster. The general election voting intention figures (with changes on the last Welsh Political Barometer poll earlier in the month indicated in brackets) are:


Labour: 37% (-1)

Conservatives: 23% (+1)

UKIP: 17% (-1)

Plaid Cymru: 13% (no change)

Liberal Democrats: 7% (+1)

Others: 3% (-1)


So here, as for the National Assembly, we see Labour remaining some way ahead of the pack, though their support level edging downwards very marginally. After their three-point fall in our last survey, the Conservatives support edges up here, but still remains several points below where they were earlier this year. There are similarly tiny moves in support for UKIP and the Liberal Democrats, while Plaid Cymu remain exactly stable.

Following the standard Uniform National Swing assumption, this poll projects four seats in Wales to change hands from the result in the general election: for Labour to regain Cardiff North, Gower and the Vale of Clwyd from the Conservatives, and Plaid Cymru to gain Ynys Môn from Labour. Under the alternative assumption of Ratio Swing, the same four seats are projected to change hands.

For the EU Referendum we also see some change from our last Welsh Political Barometer poll. The figures (with changes from earlier in the month again indicated in brackets) are as follows:


Remain: 41% (+3)

Leave: 37% (-2)

Don’t Know / Wouldn’t Vote: 22% (-1)


So, things continue to be very close here, but with Remain edging back into the lead in our latest survey. The changes here are only small, and within the ‘margin of error’. But they are also consistent with the modest moves towards Remain in GB-wide polls in the last week or two. Remain continue to be the more likely side to win the referendum in both Wales and the UK as a whole. But it is by no means a ‘done deal’ in either case.


  • Graham Harries

    What would these Voting Intention figures be showing if the methodology had remained unchanged since 2011?

    • Roger Scully

      Not sure. I suspect Labour slightly lower and the Tories slightly higher. But I will ask our friends at YouGov.

    • Roger Scully

      No, it’s just Shippo taking the UNS projections for each seat (which I showed) him, and probably over-hyping into a new story. Which, sadly, seems to be what good journey like him have to do these days.

  • Winfried H.May

    Winfried H.May 81249 München Freienfels-Str.5 089/8632982
    Great Britain stay with us
    Hallo und Guten Tag, 26.4.2016
    this is the very first time for me to contact you, and of course I do not know, how to do it correctly.
    Great Britain stay with us! We are not a political group, but a private family-action. A family with grandfather, daughter and her children. It is our hopeful wish, that the “Engländer”, as we call the British people, stay with us, to build this house of Europe. And we want to make them shure, that we would feel it a great loss, if they would go out. You find our song and our video in http://www.europalieder.de.
    This action is familymade, nonprof-and uncommercial. Perhaps you can use it within your program and your reporting.
    With the best regards – und freundlichen Grüßen aus München –
    Winfried H.May

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