Putting Things Into Context

When looking at the results of the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, it’s not necessarily self-evident as to what should be the relevant point of comparison: with the last poll? With the last election result? Or even with where the polls were at this point in the cycle before the previous election?

It therefore occurred to me that the table below might be a good idea. Here I present the headline voting intention figures from today’s new Welsh Political Barometer poll for both the National Assembly constituency and regional votes. I then show the differences for each party between their ratings in the current poll and three different points of comparison:

  • The most recent Welsh Political Barometer poll, published earlier this month
  • A YouGov poll published in late April 2011: i.e. as close as possible an equivalent measure at this point in the last election cycle
  • The result of the 2011 National Assembly election

So pick your own comparison!

Constituency Vote

Party Current % Since last poll Since April 2011 Since 2011 Result
Labour 33 -2 -12 -9.3
Plaid Cymru 21 No change +3 +1.7
Conservative 19 No change -2 -6.0
UKIP 15 -2 +15 +15.0
Lib-Dems 8 +2 No change -2.6


Regional Vote

Party Current % Since last poll Since April 2011 Since 2011 Result
Labour 29 -2 -12 -7.9
Plaid Cymru 22 +2 +4 +4.1
Conservative 19 -1 -1 -3.5
UKIP 15 -1 +8 +10.4
Lib-Dems 8 +3 +1 No change
Greens 4 No change No change +0.6


  • Glenn swingler

    Whatever you choose to look at it is clear the only party making serious headway is plaid Cymru (we can obviously discount ukip 2011)

  • oldnat


    Did you make progress with YouGov on their adding country of birth as a weighting factor?

    It would be interesting to know whether this is a factor in the increase of VI for Plaid and their antithesis – UKIP (the nationalist party of the Brits).

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