As well as asking about the National Assembly, our new Welsh Political Barometer poll has continued to ask about voting intentions for Westminster and for the EU Referendum. The results are rather interesting.
First, Westminster. The voting intention figures (with changes on the March survey carried out by YouGov for the Welsh Election Study indicated in brackets) are:
Labour: 38% (+2)
Conservatives: 22% (-3)
UKIP: 18% (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (no change)
Others: 4% (+1)
So here, as for the National Assembly, we see Labour remaining some way ahead of the pack, and actually gaining a little ground. But perhaps most strikingly we see a three-point fall in Conservative support – one which comes on top of a two-point drop in the March survey. In February’s Barometer poll the Tories were on 27% for Westminster, so they have fallen a full five percentage points in two months. The difficulties being experienced by the party at a UK level clearly appear to be hitting home with many Welsh voters.
After dropping a couple of points for Westminster in the March survey, UKIP’s support is back at the level seen in the February Barometer poll. Plaid Cymru slip back one point, again to the level seen in February. There remains little good news for the Liberal Democrats.
Following the standard Uniform National Swing assumption, this poll projects three seats in Wales to change hands from the result in the general election: for Labour to regain Cardiff North, Gower and the Vale of Clwyd from the Conservatives. Under the alternative assumption of Ratio Swing, the same three seats are also projected to change hands. But, in addition, Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Ynys Môn from Labour.
For the EU Referendum we also see some change from the March Welsh Election Study survey. The figures (with changes from March again indicated in brackets) are as follows:
Remain: 38% (-3)
Leave: 39% (+3)
Don’t Know / Wouldn’t Vote: 23% (-1)
So, things could barely be closer – but after a five-point lead for Remain last time, we now have Leave marginally ahead. What I think this emphasises is that things continue to be very much up for grabs in Wales, and it is by no means clear which way the nation will vote on June 23rd.