A Monday Morning Update

Not a major post today, but a few bits and bobs of information for you.

First, I should soon have a couple of short articles published on The Conversation website. The first was with my colleague Stephen Cushion (who works in Cardiff University’s School of Journalism, Media and Cultural Studies; to find out more about Stephen’s work see here). In this piece we look at results regarding media consumption in Wales from the recent Welsh Election Study pre-election wave voter survey. Perhaps unsurprisingly, things do not look great for our local Welsh media – something which does not have good implications for the prospects of voters being able to make informed choices in the National Assembly election. A link to the piece is now available here.

I should also have another piece published on the same website before long. Somewhat related to the first piece, it looks at how accurately voters in Wales are able to attribute responsibility for outcomes in some key policy areas. Once again, the news is not great. I’ll add a link to that piece as soon as it is available.

Third, some of you may previously have seen some of these websites around election times, which ask you your opinions on various issues and then suggest to you which parties you are closest to. Well, it looks as if we are going to have at least two of them running this year in Wales! First out of the starting gate is THIS. It has been led by my friend Dr Matt Wall of Swansea University, with a very tiny amount of input from me. Please explore it, and share with others. There will be another such site, that I’ve also been involved in getting going, launching soon – more details on that in another post.

Finally, just to let you know that the next Welsh Political Barometer poll is due to be published one week today (i.e. 11th April). As I understand it, the plan is for the results to be published first on Wales Tonight, at 6pm on ITV1. As soon as the figures have been published there, I’ll also make something available through the blog here.

Checking back through my records, the closest equivalent poll to this forthcoming Barometer in the last Assembly election will have been one conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales on 12-14 April 2011. The voting intention figures for the National Assembly in that 2011 poll were:


Constituency Vote

Labour: 49%

Conservative: 20%

Plaid Cymru: 17%

Lib-Dems: 8%

Others: 6%


Regional Vote

Labour: 44%

Conservative: 20%

Plaid Cymru: 18%

Lib-Dems: 8%

UKIP: 4%

Others: 6% (including Greens on 2%)


How will our new poll differ from those figures, and also from the recently-published results of the Welsh Election Study? We have just one week to wait to find out.


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