An Update on the 2016 Welsh Election Study

Posted on 31 January 2016 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

As some of you will recall, in September I mentioned on the blog that a research team I am leading had been fortunate enough to secure funding from the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK to conduct a detailed academic study of this year’s Welsh Assembly election. Our study, imaginatively-entitled The 2016 Welsh
Read more

Be Lucky in Your Enemies

Posted on 24 January 2016 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

It was 2007 when things started to go seriously wrong for the Scottish Labour party. In that year they finished narrowly behind the SNP in the Scottish Parliament election (winning 46 seats to the SNP’s 47). Actually, that Labour performance, making a net loss of only four seats in an election held during the last,
Read more

All That is Solid…

Posted on 18 January 2016 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

I ended part two of my recent Electoral Review of 2015 by observing, rather portentiously, that “All that is solid about an opinion poll lead can melt into the electoral air…” I had been reflecting, as you may recall, on how an apparently sizeable opinion poll lead for Labour prior to the 2014 European election
Read more

The First Leaders’ Debate of 2016

Posted on 17 January 2016 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

You could be forgiven for thinking that it was a bit early in the year – and, for that matter, a little early in the day – but the first leaders’ debate of the 2016 National Assembly election took place this morning. As a special edition of the Radio Wales show, the Sunday Supplement, we
Read more

The Electoral Review of 2015, Part 2

Posted on 11 January 2016 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

For this second part of my review of the electoral year in Wales, I turn to the state of the parties as revealed by the opinion polls. With the establishment late in 2013 of the Welsh Political Barometer, we now have more regular opinion polls conducted in Wales than has typically been the case in
Read more

The Electoral Review of 2015, Part 1

Posted on 1 January 2016 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

[Note: The original version of this piece, posted on 01/01/16, contained two errors in the list of council by-elections results, and the summary table. These have now been corrected].   After an extraordinary 2015, there’s certainly lots to look forward to, electorally, in 2016. But before we look ahead, a brief glance backwards. I will
Read more