Free Breakfast!

Next Monday morning, in the Pierhead Buiding in Cardiff Bay, the Wales Governance Centre will be holding one of our occasional Breakfast Seminars. This one will be a review of the 2015 General Election in Wales.

Further details on the event, including how to register, are available here.

The bad news is that, if you do attend, you have to listen to me talking about the election. The much better news is that there is no charge to attend the event, and a free breakfast is included.

For those of you who can’t attend, I’ll post the slides after the event. But I hope to see a few of you there.


  • Gaz

    Araith ddiddorol iawn.

    Do you think that one of the issues is that marginality – which has a very specific meaning – is a problematic indicator for seat competitiveness?

    With Cardiff North, the assumption (informed by the Ashcroft poll, in fairness) was that a slight Tory majority in 2010 meant that the seat was a likely Labour gain. 2010 was a flawed baseline year due to the seat being held by a popular Labour incumbent who could mitigate the nationwide trend to a very considerable extent. Without this incumbency advantage, it would likely have been a Tory majority of 2000 last time around, given its demographics and the pre-1997 trend.

    • Roger Scully

      Well, I think you are right that Julie Morgan may have confused matters somewhat in Cardiff North. Having said that, Ashcroft’s polls did show Labour ahead there as well.

      More generally, before the election it is difficult to know what you would use instead of marginality, except in circumstances like Scotland this year, where the SNP had such a surge that it clearly brought every seat they didn’t hold into play.

  • Gaz

    Suspect a more detailed index of marginal seats in England and Wales is needed moving forward.

    Dummy variables for CON-LAB incumbents and demographic controls in the form of ACORN data. Variables to include party % of the vote over multiple election cycles c.20 years to cover the overall trend and fluctuations. Could build on the structure of Norris’s datasets.

  • Richard

    Roger – has anyone analysed the relative success of the people who led the General Election campaigns?

    One of the of most noticeable differences, for me, in the Welsh/Scottish campaigns is that the Scots party leaders (Murphy, Davidson and Sturgeon etc) led the campaigning in Scotland while in Wales the campaigns were led by the SSW Stephen Crabb, SSSW Owen Smith while David Cameron, Miliband etc led in England.

    It does seem that, from the outset, the parties recognised that Scotland, Wales and England were different territories in choosing their campaign leads. Do you have any thoughts on this?

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