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The Latest Figures on Referendum Voting Intentions

Among the other things – in addition to Westminster and National Assembly voting intentions – that the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll asked about were how people might vote in the two potential referendums that have been mooted for Wales. These are, respectively, a UK-wide vote on British membership of the European Union, and a vote in Wales on whether the National Assembly should be given some powers over income tax.

So what did we find? Here, first, are the figures for an EU referendum:

“If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

I would vote to remain a member of the European Union: 43%

I would vote to leave to European Union: 36%

I would not vote: 5%

Don’t Know: 17%

 

So as with nearly all previous surveys in Wales that have asked about this matter, we find here a small-ish lead for those wishing to remain in the EU. The table below summarises the findings of all recent polls on the matter:

 

Wales, EU Referendum Polls

Poll % Remain % Leave % DK/ NV % ‘remain’ Lead
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 20131 42 35 22 7
Western Mail/Beaufort, June 20132 29 37 35 -8
WGC/YouGov, July 20133 39 40 21 -1
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 20134 38 40 22 -2
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 20145 44 33 23 11
Walesonline/YouGov, June 20146 41 38 22 3
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, June-July 20147 41 36 24 5
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, September 20148 43 37 20 6
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 20149 42 39 19 3
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, January 201510 44 36 20 8
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, March 201511 43 36 22 7

 

  1. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1007. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
  2. Face-to-face poll conducted by Beaufort Research for the Western Mail. Number of respondents = 988; Questions asked: “If there was a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
  3. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff University.. Number of respondents = 1012. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
  4. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1001. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
  5. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1250. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
  6. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for Walesonline. Number of respondents = 2270. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
  7. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1035. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
  8. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1025. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
  9. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1131. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
  10. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1036. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
  11. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1279. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

 

And what about income tax? Well, here is what we found on that:

“If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”

In favour of powers to raise or lower the levels of income tax in Wales: 37%

Against powers to raise or lower the levels of income tax in Wales: 36%

Would not vote: 7%

Don’t Know: 20%

 

This is the first time that the prospective Yes camp in any income tax referendum has led for some while – as the following table make clear:

 

Wales, Income Tax Referendum Polls

Poll % Yes % No % DK/ NR % ‘No’ Lead
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 20131 39 34 27 -5
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 20132 35 38 26 3
Western Mail/Beaufort, December 20133 32 30 38 -2
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 20144 31 42 28 11
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, May 20145 33 39 28 6
Walesonline/YouGov, June 20146 34 41 25 7
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, June-July 20147 32 42 26 10
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, September 20148 38 39 24 1
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 20149 37 38 25 1
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, January 201510 37 39 24 2
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, March 201511 37 36 27 -1

 

  1. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1007. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
  2. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1001. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
  3. Face-to-face poll conducted by Beaufort Research for the Western Mail. Number of respondents = 1022. Question asked: “The UK Government says it will pass a law to enable a referendum to be held on whether the Welsh Government should be able to vary rates of income tax up or down in Wales. If such a referendum were held tomorrow, how would you vote?”
  4. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1250. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
  5. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1092. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
  6. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for MediaWales. Number of respondents = 2270. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
  7. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1035. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
  8. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1025. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
  9. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1131. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
  10. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1036. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
  11. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1279. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”

 

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