Among the other things – in addition to Westminster and National Assembly voting intentions – that the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll asked about were how people might vote in the two potential referendums that have been mooted for Wales. These are, respectively, a UK-wide vote on British membership of the European Union, and a vote in Wales on whether the National Assembly should be given some powers over income tax.

So what did we find? Here, first, are the figures for an EU referendum:

“If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

I would vote to remain a member of the European Union: 43%

I would vote to leave to European Union: 36%

I would not vote: 5%

Don’t Know: 17%

 

So as with nearly all previous surveys in Wales that have asked about this matter, we find here a small-ish lead for those wishing to remain in the EU. The table below summarises the findings of all recent polls on the matter:

 

Wales, EU Referendum Polls

Poll	% Remain	% Leave	% DK/ NV	% ‘remain’ Lead
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 20131	42	35	22	7
Western Mail/Beaufort, June 20132	29	37	35	-8
WGC/YouGov, July 20133	39	40	21	-1
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 20134	38	40	22	-2
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 20145	44	33	23	11
Walesonline/YouGov, June 20146	41	38	22	3
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, June-July 20147	41	36	24	5
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, September 20148	43	37	20	6
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 20149	42	39	19	3
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, January 201510	44	36	20	8
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, March 201511	43	36	22	7

 

1. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1007. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
2. Face-to-face poll conducted by Beaufort Research for the Western Mail. Number of respondents = 988; Questions asked: “If there was a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
3. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff University.. Number of respondents = 1012. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
4. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1001. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
5. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1250. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
6. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for Walesonline. Number of respondents = 2270. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
7. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1035. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
8. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1025. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
9. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1131. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
10. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1036. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”
11. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1279. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

 

And what about income tax? Well, here is what we found on that:

“If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”

In favour of powers to raise or lower the levels of income tax in Wales: 37%

Against powers to raise or lower the levels of income tax in Wales: 36%

Would not vote: 7%

Don’t Know: 20%

 

This is the first time that the prospective Yes camp in any income tax referendum has led for some while – as the following table make clear:

 

Wales, Income Tax Referendum Polls

Poll	% Yes	% No	% DK/ NR	% ‘No’ Lead
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 20131	39	34	27	-5
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 20132	35	38	26	3
Western Mail/Beaufort, December 20133	32	30	38	-2
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 20144	31	42	28	11
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, May 20145	33	39	28	6
Walesonline/YouGov, June 20146	34	41	25	7
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, June-July 20147	32	42	26	10
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, September 20148	38	39	24	1
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 20149	37	38	25	1
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, January 201510	37	39	24	2
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, March 201511	37	36	27	-1

 

1. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1007. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
2. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1001. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
3. Face-to-face poll conducted by Beaufort Research for the Western Mail. Number of respondents = 1022. Question asked: “The UK Government says it will pass a law to enable a referendum to be held on whether the Welsh Government should be able to vary rates of income tax up or down in Wales. If such a referendum were held tomorrow, how would you vote?”
4. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1250. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
5. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1092. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
6. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for MediaWales. Number of respondents = 2270. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
7. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1035. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
8. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1025. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
9. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1131. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
10. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1036. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”
11. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1279. Question asked: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales powers to raise or to lower the levels of income tax in Wales, how would you vote?”