Anything to Learn?

Posted on 23 February 2015 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

I was asked recently how much I thought we could draw from the 2014 European election results as an indicator of what to expect for this year’s general election. In general, I suggested, not much: I’m distinctly sceptical about using 2014 as an indicator of what to expect for 2015. EP elections are very different
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Polling Matters Podcast on Wales

Posted on 18 February 2015 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

A few days ago I went to London to record, with Keiran Pedley from the polling company GfK NOP, and Rob Vance, a Polling Matters podcast. We discussed the forthcoming general election in Wales. You can hear the outcome here. I hope that some of you find it interesting.
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Whose Supporters are Most Likely to Vote?

Posted on 16 February 2015 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

  It has long been recognised, both by academics studying elections and by parties fighting them, that a key part of electoral success is ensuring that a party’s supporters actually turn out on the day. Parties put a lot of effort into Getting Out The Vote, and they are right to do so: research about
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The White Paper on Reforming Local Government

Posted on 9 February 2015 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

As most readers of the Blog will be aware, last week saw the Welsh Government publish their White Paper on local authorities (Reforming Local Government: Power to Local People). This was a lengthy and wide-ranging document, including a number of issues on which the government is actively soliciting outside opinions. Most of the context of
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Some Interesting Data on Party Leaders

Posted on 4 February 2015 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

As many of you will have noticed, the number of published opinion polls is rising steadily as we approach the general election. Among those polls very recently published was a Britain-wide one by Survation; apparently the first in a series that they will be running for Mirror group newspapers. As with most polls, there was
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Ratio Swing Numbers for the Latest Welsh Barometer Poll

Posted on 2 February 2015 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

I have promised to keep publishing here Ratio Swing (RS) seat projection figures, as well as those for the more traditional Uniform National Swing (UNS) method, on the various Welsh polls that come our way. I reported both sets of figures on the blog for the BBC/ICM poll last week; but it has been ‘helpfully’
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