A Little Christmas Treat

Posted on 29 December 2014 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

In an earlier post, I assessed the potential utility of Ratio Swing (RS) as an alternative method to Uniform National Swing (UNS) of projecting opinion poll results to potential seat implications for both Westminster and the National Assembly. I suggested that there was no clear empirical or conceptual advantage to either method. I have continued
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New Constituency Poll: Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire

Posted on 19 December 2014 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

As regular blog readers will be well aware, I’ve had cause on several occasions to discuss the marginal-constituency polling that Lord Ashcroft is conducting. For the first time ever in the UK, we are getting substantial numbers of full-sample polls in marginal seats. Several of those conducted hitherto have been in Wales: in Cardiff North,
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A Good Day for Wales

Posted on 18 December 2014 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Despite what the weather might have suggested, I think yesterday was a rather good day for Wales. The Royal Assent to the Wales Act does not put in place a perfect piece of legislation, or a flawless devolution settlement, by any means. I think there are some aspects of the act that are positive; there
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Happy Birthday to Us

Posted on 15 December 2014 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll arrived pretty much exactly one year after the inaugural one, in December 2013. As you all sing ‘Happy Birthday Welsh Political Barometer’ to yourselves while reading this, I thought it might be of some interest to look at how the patterns of party support in Wales have changed from
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The Party Leaders: New Evidence on Public Attitudes

Posted on 9 December 2014 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

As I’ve had call to discuss on the Blog previously, what the public think about the party leaders matters. Sure, attitudes to a leader are shaped heavily by what people think about a party. But to at least some extent the reverse can also be the case: views about the party can be influenced by
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New Barometer Poll Published!

Posted on 8 December 2014 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

The moment we have all been waiting for… The figures on voting intention for Westminster and the National Assembly, along with a brief write-up including seat projections, are here. More to come later in the week – including ratings of the UK and Welsh party leaders!
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Wales and EVEL

Posted on 4 December 2014 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

I mentioned in my previous post that I had somehow omitted – i.e. forgotten – to discuss on the Blog many of the questions included in September’s BBC/ICM poll. This omission was particularly cloth-headed of me given that the BBC had actually consulted with me on the wording of some of the questions asked in
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And Here’s One I Forgot Earlier…

Posted on 1 December 2014 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

I mentioned in a post last week that sometimes important things pass by without comment. However, I am at least normally aware that this has happened. I was rather aghast to realise later last week that, while I had reported at the time on the voting intention numbers from the BBC/ICM poll conducted in September,
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