Uncategorized

Lost, 2

 

As promised in my previous post, I’m once more in search of details about missing polling data in Wales. I’m now on the hunt for further information about past polling for elections to the National Assembly.

Below are tables of all the polling data I have been able to assemble about past National Assembly elections:

 

Wales, NAW Polls (Constituency vote)

Poll

Lab

Con

Lib-Dem

Plaid

UKIP

others*

ITV Wales/NOP, May 1999

47

14

10

26

 

3

BBC/ICM, May 1999

45

14

12

26

 

3

ELECTION RESULT, MAY 1999

37.6

15.9

13.5

28.4

 

4.7

HTV Wales/NOP, November 2002

43

14

13

27

 

2

HTV Wales/NOP, early April 2003

39

11

15

31

 

4

HTV Wales/NOP, late April 2003

39

16

13

26

 

6

ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2003

40.0

19.9

14.1

21.2

 

4.7

ITV Wales/NOP, early April 2007

38

20

15

21

 

6

ITV Wales/NOP, late April 2007

32

19

15

26

 

8

Western Mail/Beaufort, late April 2007

36

19

12

26

 

7

ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2007

32.2

22.4

14.8

22.4

 

8.2

IWP-WGC/YouGov, July 2009

26

26

15

24

 

9

IWP-WGC/YouGov, October 2009

32

25

12

24

 

7

NAW/YouGov, March 2010

35

23

13

22

 

7

ITV-Wales/YouGov, 1-3 May 2010

32

21

20

22

 

5

IWP-WGC/YG, May (post-elect) 2010

36

19

16

17

 

12

ITV-Wales/YouGov, June 2010

42

19

12

20

 

6

ITV-Wales/YouGov, July 2010

40

20

13

22

 

5

ITV-Wales/YouGov, August 2010

39

22

10

23

 

8

ITV-Wales/YouGov, September 2010

44

22

11

19

 

5

ITV-Wales/YouGov, October 2010

44

19

9

21

 

8

ITV-Wales/YouGov, November 2010

44

21

9

21

 

6

ITV-Wales/YouGov, December 2010

44

23

6

21

 

6

ITV-Wales/YouGov, January 2011

45

21

7

21

 

6

ITV-Wales/YouGov, early March 2011

48

20

7

19

 

7

ITV-Wales/YouGov, late March 2011

47

21

7

17

 

7

ITV-Wales/YouGov, mid April 2011

49

20

8

17

 

6

ITV-Wales/YouGov, late April 2011

45

21

8

18

 

8

ITV-Wales/YouGov, 2-4 May 2011

47

20

9

18

 

6

ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2011

42.3

25.0

10.6

19.3

 

2.8

ITV-Wales/YouGov, end-Jan – Feb 2012

49

20

7

17

 

7

Cardiff Uni/YouGov, mid-April 2012

48

19

7

18

 

8

ITV-Wales/YouGov, July 2012

50

19

7

17

 

8

ITV-Wales/YouGov, August 2012

47

19

7

17

 

10

ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013

46

21

10

17

5

1

WGC/YouGov, July 2013

46

19

8

17

6

3

ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013

43

19

9

20

7

3

ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2014

42

21

9

19

5

3

*Including UKIP until 2013

 

Wales, NAW Polls (Regional vote)

Poll

Lab

Con

Lib-Dem

Plaid

UKIP

others

HTV Wales/NOP, May 1999

38

13

15

29

 

5

BBC/ICM, May 1999

41

13

13

28

 

5

ELECTION RESULT, MAY 1999

35.5

16.5

12.6

30.6

 

4.9

HTV Wales/NOP, November 2002

32

15

19

31

 

3

HTV Wales/NOP, early April 2003

37

13

15

29

 

6

HTV Wales/NOP, late April 2003

35

17

11

23

 

14

ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2003

36.6

19.2

12.7

19.7

 

11.9

HTV Wales/NOP, early April 2007

36

23

14

21

 

8

HTV Wales/NOP, late April 2007

34

18

15

24

 

9

Western Mail/Beaufort, late April 2007

35

20

12

26

 

7

ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2007

29.6

21.4

11.7

21.0

 

16.3

IWP-WGC/YouGov, July 2009

26

26

14

20

 

15

IWP-WGC/YouGov, October 2009

30

27

11

21

 

12

NAW/YouGov, March 2010

32

22

12

23

 

12

ITV-Wales/YouGov, 1-3 May 2010

30

21

18

21

 

9

IWP-WGC/YG, May (post-election) 2010

28

16

21

18

 

17

ITV-Wales/YouGov, June 2010

40

20

12

19

 

9

ITV-Wales/YouGov, July 2010

37

20

14

20

 

8

ITV-Wales/YouGov, August 2010

39

21

9

23

 

8

ITV-Wales/YouGov, September 2010

41

20

12

19

 

8

ITV-Wales/YouGov, October 2010

40

18

9

23

 

11

ITV-Wales/YouGov, October 2010

41

20

9

20

 

11

ITV-Wales/YouGov, December 2010

42

22

5

21

 

10

ITV-Wales/YouGov, January 2011

41

20

8

21

 

10

ITV-Wales/YouGov, early March 2011

45

20

5

18

 

11

ITV-Wales/YouGov, late March 2011

45

20

8

16

 

10

ITV-Wales/YouGov, late March 2011

44

20

8

18

 

10

ITV-Wales/YouGov, late April 2011

41

20

7

18

 

16

ITV-Wales/YouGov, 2-4 May 2011

43

19

8

18

 

13

ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2011

36.9

22.5

8.0

17.9

 

14.7

ITV-Wales/YouGov, end-Jan – Feb 2012

45

20

7

15

 

13

Cardiff Uni/YouGov, mid-April 2012#

33

13

9

22

 

23

ITV-Wales/YouGov, July 2012

35

11

8

20

 

25

ITV-Wales/YouGov, August 2012

30

14

7

24

 

25

ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013

26

14

11

26

13

11

WGC/YouGov, July 2013

25

12

9

23

16

14

ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013#

40

19

9

15

10

7

ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2014

39

19

9

17

10

6

*Including UKIP until 2013

#Question wording changes from this date onwards (as discussed in Blog posts).

Wales, NAW Polls, Non-Specific Vote#

Poll

Lab

Con

Lib-Dem

Plaid

others

ITV Wales/NOP, May-June 2004

36

19

13

26

6

Plaid Cymru/Beaufort, June 2007

45

13

10

24

8

Plaid Cymru/Beaufort, Oct 2008

35

19

12

26

7

Plaid Cymru/Beaufort, March 2009

35

16

12

27

10

RMG Clarity, April 2011

51

20

8

17

5

# Polls where respondents were only asked how they would vote in an Assembly election, without specifying constituency or list vote.

 

So, what is missing here? Well, a number of things:

  • I have been unable to trace information on any polls before May 1999.
  • I have been unable to trace any polls between May 1999 and late 2002.
  • I have been unable to trace any polls between May 2003 and April 2007.
  • And, one stray BBC/ICM effort aside, there is nothing by any company other than NOP until 2007.

Once again, any help with additional information would be very gratefully received. And as I mentioned in the previous post, any information I am able to trace will be shared with the whole (and growing) Elections in Wales community.

Comments

  • J P

    Why did Plaid’s vote drop so suddenly in May 2013, those two polls in April 2003, 31 and 26 at constituency poll, then it dropped to 21 at the election, why the big drop? Was there a reason for this?

    • Roger Scully

      Mainly due to a very poor campaign, I think, JP; though I suspect the first poll could have been a bit of an outlier, flattering their level of support.

  • J P

    I see it is a problem the lack of Welsh polls, but without a WELSH media industry to fuel the polls you will not get the demand.

    Maybe as academics the emphasis should be on drawing the newspaper industry here.

    Also, how much notice do you take of these daily polls about the Westminster election, do they excite you? as the polls are so frequent for the upcoming general election, its a bit dull?

  • Roger Scully

    Well, I’m not sure I can do much about the slow death of the print media. However, in terms of polls we at the Wales Governance Centre have been able to institute more regular polling in Wales by collaborating with ITV-Wales. So we will have them at least quarterly now until May 2016. That’s not as regular as we would like, but it’s a great deal better than nothing.

    On the Westminster polls – yes, perhaps they are a little too frequent now. But I’d rather have too much information than too little; the former is not a problem we have here in Wales!

    • J P

      We need more polls in Wales, maybe a poll just based on income tax and the lockstep. I can’t wait till pollsters try that out on the public. At least in Wales we can test out complicated polls. Maybe we are lucky in Wales. We had the GoW act 2006, LCOs, 1997 referendum on limited powers, 2011 legislative powers and a lockstep type income tax referendum!

      I bet the anoraks are whetting their appetite on this! Have you got any polling data for the 1997 referendum? that would be interesting?

      As with being a testing ground for banning e cigarettes! With are the testing ground for complicated referenda!

  • Jason Morgan

    Just a general comment: I’ve heard and read many, many times before that Welsh polls are notoriously poor at conveying voting intentions in Wales – I’m sure you have as well. This seems to be the general opinion on them as well. However it strikes me how, generally speaking, Welsh opinion polling seem to be as close to the mark as any. The only figures that seem to be off-ish are the Plaid Cymru figures just before the 2003 election, Labour pre-2011, and the Beaufort polls done for Plaid Cymru. Otherwise they look to be pretty reliable?

  • Roger Scully

    I think that’s right, Jason. The main problem with Welsh polls is – or at least has been in the past – that we don’t have enough of them.

    Thanks for your interest in the site.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *