As promised in my previous post, I’m once more in search of details about missing polling data in Wales. I’m now on the hunt for further information about past polling for elections to the National Assembly.
Below are tables of all the polling data I have been able to assemble about past National Assembly elections:
Wales, NAW Polls (Constituency vote)
Poll |
Lab |
Con |
Lib-Dem |
Plaid |
UKIP |
others* |
ITV Wales/NOP, May 1999 |
47 |
14 |
10 |
26 |
|
3 |
BBC/ICM, May 1999 |
45 |
14 |
12 |
26 |
|
3 |
ELECTION RESULT, MAY 1999 |
37.6 |
15.9 |
13.5 |
28.4 |
|
4.7 |
HTV Wales/NOP, November 2002 |
43 |
14 |
13 |
27 |
|
2 |
HTV Wales/NOP, early April 2003 |
39 |
11 |
15 |
31 |
|
4 |
HTV Wales/NOP, late April 2003 |
39 |
16 |
13 |
26 |
|
6 |
ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2003 |
40.0 |
19.9 |
14.1 |
21.2 |
|
4.7 |
ITV Wales/NOP, early April 2007 |
38 |
20 |
15 |
21 |
|
6 |
ITV Wales/NOP, late April 2007 |
32 |
19 |
15 |
26 |
|
8 |
Western Mail/Beaufort, late April 2007 |
36 |
19 |
12 |
26 |
|
7 |
ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2007 |
32.2 |
22.4 |
14.8 |
22.4 |
|
8.2 |
IWP-WGC/YouGov, July 2009 |
26 |
26 |
15 |
24 |
|
9 |
IWP-WGC/YouGov, October 2009 |
32 |
25 |
12 |
24 |
|
7 |
NAW/YouGov, March 2010 |
35 |
23 |
13 |
22 |
|
7 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, 1-3 May 2010 |
32 |
21 |
20 |
22 |
|
5 |
IWP-WGC/YG, May (post-elect) 2010 |
36 |
19 |
16 |
17 |
|
12 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, June 2010 |
42 |
19 |
12 |
20 |
|
6 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, July 2010 |
40 |
20 |
13 |
22 |
|
5 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, August 2010 |
39 |
22 |
10 |
23 |
|
8 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, September 2010 |
44 |
22 |
11 |
19 |
|
5 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, October 2010 |
44 |
19 |
9 |
21 |
|
8 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, November 2010 |
44 |
21 |
9 |
21 |
|
6 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, December 2010 |
44 |
23 |
6 |
21 |
|
6 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, January 2011 |
45 |
21 |
7 |
21 |
|
6 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, early March 2011 |
48 |
20 |
7 |
19 |
|
7 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, late March 2011 |
47 |
21 |
7 |
17 |
|
7 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, mid April 2011 |
49 |
20 |
8 |
17 |
|
6 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, late April 2011 |
45 |
21 |
8 |
18 |
|
8 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, 2-4 May 2011 |
47 |
20 |
9 |
18 |
|
6 |
ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2011 |
42.3 |
25.0 |
10.6 |
19.3 |
|
2.8 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, end-Jan – Feb 2012 |
49 |
20 |
7 |
17 |
|
7 |
Cardiff Uni/YouGov, mid-April 2012 |
48 |
19 |
7 |
18 |
|
8 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, July 2012 |
50 |
19 |
7 |
17 |
|
8 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, August 2012 |
47 |
19 |
7 |
17 |
|
10 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013 |
46 |
21 |
10 |
17 |
5 |
1 |
WGC/YouGov, July 2013 |
46 |
19 |
8 |
17 |
6 |
3 |
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013 |
43 |
19 |
9 |
20 |
7 |
3 |
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2014 |
42 |
21 |
9 |
19 |
5 |
3 |
*Including UKIP until 2013
Wales, NAW Polls (Regional vote)
Poll |
Lab |
Con |
Lib-Dem |
Plaid |
UKIP |
others |
HTV Wales/NOP, May 1999 |
38 |
13 |
15 |
29 |
|
5 |
BBC/ICM, May 1999 |
41 |
13 |
13 |
28 |
|
5 |
ELECTION RESULT, MAY 1999 |
35.5 |
16.5 |
12.6 |
30.6 |
|
4.9 |
HTV Wales/NOP, November 2002 |
32 |
15 |
19 |
31 |
|
3 |
HTV Wales/NOP, early April 2003 |
37 |
13 |
15 |
29 |
|
6 |
HTV Wales/NOP, late April 2003 |
35 |
17 |
11 |
23 |
|
14 |
ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2003 |
36.6 |
19.2 |
12.7 |
19.7 |
|
11.9 |
HTV Wales/NOP, early April 2007 |
36 |
23 |
14 |
21 |
|
8 |
HTV Wales/NOP, late April 2007 |
34 |
18 |
15 |
24 |
|
9 |
Western Mail/Beaufort, late April 2007 |
35 |
20 |
12 |
26 |
|
7 |
ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2007 |
29.6 |
21.4 |
11.7 |
21.0 |
|
16.3 |
IWP-WGC/YouGov, July 2009 |
26 |
26 |
14 |
20 |
|
15 |
IWP-WGC/YouGov, October 2009 |
30 |
27 |
11 |
21 |
|
12 |
NAW/YouGov, March 2010 |
32 |
22 |
12 |
23 |
|
12 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, 1-3 May 2010 |
30 |
21 |
18 |
21 |
|
9 |
IWP-WGC/YG, May (post-election) 2010 |
28 |
16 |
21 |
18 |
|
17 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, June 2010 |
40 |
20 |
12 |
19 |
|
9 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, July 2010 |
37 |
20 |
14 |
20 |
|
8 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, August 2010 |
39 |
21 |
9 |
23 |
|
8 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, September 2010 |
41 |
20 |
12 |
19 |
|
8 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, October 2010 |
40 |
18 |
9 |
23 |
|
11 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, October 2010 |
41 |
20 |
9 |
20 |
|
11 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, December 2010 |
42 |
22 |
5 |
21 |
|
10 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, January 2011 |
41 |
20 |
8 |
21 |
|
10 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, early March 2011 |
45 |
20 |
5 |
18 |
|
11 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, late March 2011 |
45 |
20 |
8 |
16 |
|
10 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, late March 2011 |
44 |
20 |
8 |
18 |
|
10 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, late April 2011 |
41 |
20 |
7 |
18 |
|
16 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, 2-4 May 2011 |
43 |
19 |
8 |
18 |
|
13 |
ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2011 |
36.9 |
22.5 |
8.0 |
17.9 |
|
14.7 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, end-Jan – Feb 2012 |
45 |
20 |
7 |
15 |
|
13 |
Cardiff Uni/YouGov, mid-April 2012# |
33 |
13 |
9 |
22 |
|
23 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, July 2012 |
35 |
11 |
8 |
20 |
|
25 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, August 2012 |
30 |
14 |
7 |
24 |
|
25 |
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013 |
26 |
14 |
11 |
26 |
13 |
11 |
WGC/YouGov, July 2013 |
25 |
12 |
9 |
23 |
16 |
14 |
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013# |
40 |
19 |
9 |
15 |
10 |
7 |
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2014 |
39 |
19 |
9 |
17 |
10 |
6 |
*Including UKIP until 2013
#Question wording changes from this date onwards (as discussed in Blog posts).
Wales, NAW Polls, Non-Specific Vote#
Poll |
Lab |
Con |
Lib-Dem |
Plaid |
others |
ITV Wales/NOP, May-June 2004 |
36 |
19 |
13 |
26 |
6 |
Plaid Cymru/Beaufort, June 2007 |
45 |
13 |
10 |
24 |
8 |
Plaid Cymru/Beaufort, Oct 2008 |
35 |
19 |
12 |
26 |
7 |
Plaid Cymru/Beaufort, March 2009 |
35 |
16 |
12 |
27 |
10 |
RMG Clarity, April 2011 |
51 |
20 |
8 |
17 |
5 |
# Polls where respondents were only asked how they would vote in an Assembly election, without specifying constituency or list vote.
So, what is missing here? Well, a number of things:
- I have been unable to trace information on any polls before May 1999.
- I have been unable to trace any polls between May 1999 and late 2002.
- I have been unable to trace any polls between May 2003 and April 2007.
- And, one stray BBC/ICM effort aside, there is nothing by any company other than NOP until 2007.
Once again, any help with additional information would be very gratefully received. And as I mentioned in the previous post, any information I am able to trace will be shared with the whole (and growing) Elections in Wales community.
Comments
Why did Plaid’s vote drop so suddenly in May 2013, those two polls in April 2003, 31 and 26 at constituency poll, then it dropped to 21 at the election, why the big drop? Was there a reason for this?
Mainly due to a very poor campaign, I think, JP; though I suspect the first poll could have been a bit of an outlier, flattering their level of support.
I see it is a problem the lack of Welsh polls, but without a WELSH media industry to fuel the polls you will not get the demand.
Maybe as academics the emphasis should be on drawing the newspaper industry here.
Also, how much notice do you take of these daily polls about the Westminster election, do they excite you? as the polls are so frequent for the upcoming general election, its a bit dull?
Well, I’m not sure I can do much about the slow death of the print media. However, in terms of polls we at the Wales Governance Centre have been able to institute more regular polling in Wales by collaborating with ITV-Wales. So we will have them at least quarterly now until May 2016. That’s not as regular as we would like, but it’s a great deal better than nothing.
On the Westminster polls – yes, perhaps they are a little too frequent now. But I’d rather have too much information than too little; the former is not a problem we have here in Wales!
We need more polls in Wales, maybe a poll just based on income tax and the lockstep. I can’t wait till pollsters try that out on the public. At least in Wales we can test out complicated polls. Maybe we are lucky in Wales. We had the GoW act 2006, LCOs, 1997 referendum on limited powers, 2011 legislative powers and a lockstep type income tax referendum!
I bet the anoraks are whetting their appetite on this! Have you got any polling data for the 1997 referendum? that would be interesting?
As with being a testing ground for banning e cigarettes! With are the testing ground for complicated referenda!
Just a general comment: I’ve heard and read many, many times before that Welsh polls are notoriously poor at conveying voting intentions in Wales – I’m sure you have as well. This seems to be the general opinion on them as well. However it strikes me how, generally speaking, Welsh opinion polling seem to be as close to the mark as any. The only figures that seem to be off-ish are the Plaid Cymru figures just before the 2003 election, Labour pre-2011, and the Beaufort polls done for Plaid Cymru. Otherwise they look to be pretty reliable?
I think that’s right, Jason. The main problem with Welsh polls is – or at least has been in the past – that we don’t have enough of them.
Thanks for your interest in the site.