I spent a little time over the weekend up-dating the Opinion Polls section of the site. If you go there, you’ll see up-dated figures (click on each chart to open a full-size one), and tables.

However, doing this reminded me that we lack any complete record of opinion polls conducted in Wales. In my spare time, I’ve been trying for a while to assemble as comprehensive a record as possible of published opinion polls in Wales on voting intention. (Yes, it’s an exciting life that I lead…)

Starting with the most recent polls, and working back, I’ve been able to gather a lot of information. However, I haven’t been able thus far to go any further back than 1999; and even for the period since then, some gaps remain. In this and the next post, I’ll be explaining what information I have been able to gather, and appealing for the help of the growing Elections in Wales community in trying to develop a more complete record. My aim is to assemble a comprehensive record, going as far back as possible, and then to make this freely available to everyone via this site.

I’ve been seeking to assemble polls recording voting intentions in Wales for UK general elections, European Parliament elections, and National Assembly elections. In this post I’ll concentrate on the first two; I’ll discuss devolved elections next time.

For UK general elections, I’ve been able to assemble the following record of polls published from 2001 onwards:

 

Wales: UK General Election Polls

Poll	Lab	Con	Lib-Dem	Plaid	ukip	others*
HTV Wales/NOP, May 1999	56	16	10	16		2
HTV Wales/NOP, March 2001	52	22	10	14		2
ELECTION RESULT, JUNE 2001	48.6	21.0	13.8	14.3		2.3
HTV Wales/NOP, November 2002	51	18	14	14		2
HTV Wales/NOP, March 2003	51	16	15	15		3
HTV Wales/NOP, May-June 2004	41	22	16	15		6
ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2005	42.7	21.4	18.4	12.6		5.0
Plaid Cymru/Beaufort, March 2009	41	22	13	17		7
IWP-WGC/YouGov, July 2009	28	33	14	14		10
IWP-WGC/YouGov, October 2009	34	31	12	15		15
ITV-Wales/YouGov, November 2009	34	31	14	14		16
ITV-Wales/YouGov, January 2010	35	32	13	13		14
ITV-Wales/YouGov, March 2010	37	29	12	14		7
NAW/YouGov, March 2010	39	27	13	13		9
ITV-Wales/YouGov, April 2010	33	23	29	9		6
Western Mail/R&MP, late April 2010	37.5	23.5	21.0	10.8		7.2
ITV-Wales/YouGov, 1-3 May 2010	35	27	23	10		5
ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2010	36.2	26.1	20.1	11.3		6.2
ITV-Wales/YouGov, October 2010	48	29	8	11		7
ITV-Wales/YouGov, end-Jan–Feb 2012	50	25	6	11		9
Cardiff Uni/YouGov, mid-April 2012	50	23	7	12		9
ITV-Wales/YouGov, July 2012	54	23	4	10		9
ITV-Wales/YouGov, August 2012	50	23	7	9		12
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013	51	22	9	10	7	2
WGC/YouGov, July 2013	48	23	8	9	8	4
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013	46	21	8	12	10	4
Lord Aschroft, Jan 2014 (published March)	40	24	6	15	13	3
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2014	47	22	7	11	9	4
BBC Wales/ICM, Feb 2014	42	24	9	14	7	4

*Including UKIP prior to 2013

 

As you can see, there is plenty of potentially useful information missing from this table:

• I have found only one poll conducted before 2001.
• I have no records of any polls conducted by firms other than NOP prior to 2009! I suspect there may well have been some from Beaufort or other companies.
• I have no records of any published polls between 2004 and 2009. Again, I rather suspect that there will have been some.

That is the situation with regards to UK general elections. Here is the even less impressive table I have been able to put together of polls conducted in Wales for European Parliament elections:

Wales: EP Election Polls

Poll	Lab	Con	Lib-Dem	Plaid	UKIP	others
ITV Wales/NOP, May-June 2004	39	22	11	18	3	6
ELECTION RESULT, JUNE 2004	32.5	19.4	10.5	17.4	10.5	9.8
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013	41	20	9	13	13	5
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2013	39	17	7	12	18	7

 

Here the main problem may be simply a paucity of polls, but it is still possible that there are some that I have not been able to trace.

Can anyone help with further details here? Either on missing information about some of the polls listed, or information about other published polls that I have not yet been able to trace? (Only published polls, please. I’m not asking anyone to leak details of private polling conducted for any of the parties). Any and all help very gratefully received. You can contact me via the Comment facility here, via email or Twitter. (Contact details in the About Me section).

I can promise that these long lost polls will be given a warm welcome (I’m told that we keep one in the hillsides, somewhere), and a very loving home. Diolch.