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Lost! If found, please return to…

 

I spent a little time over the weekend up-dating the Opinion Polls section of the site. If you go there, you’ll see up-dated figures (click on each chart to open a full-size one), and tables.

However, doing this reminded me that we lack any complete record of opinion polls conducted in Wales. In my spare time, I’ve been trying for a while to assemble as comprehensive a record as possible of published opinion polls in Wales on voting intention. (Yes, it’s an exciting life that I lead…)

Starting with the most recent polls, and working back, I’ve been able to gather a lot of information. However, I haven’t been able thus far to go any further back than 1999; and even for the period since then, some gaps remain. In this and the next post, I’ll be explaining what information I have been able to gather, and appealing for the help of the growing Elections in Wales community in trying to develop a more complete record. My aim is to assemble a comprehensive record, going as far back as possible, and then to make this freely available to everyone via this site.

I’ve been seeking to assemble polls recording voting intentions in Wales for UK general elections, European Parliament elections, and National Assembly elections. In this post I’ll concentrate on the first two; I’ll discuss devolved elections next time.

For UK general elections, I’ve been able to assemble the following record of polls published from 2001 onwards:

 

Wales: UK General Election Polls

Poll

Lab

Con

Lib-Dem

Plaid

ukip

others*

HTV Wales/NOP, May 1999

56

16

10

16

 

2

HTV Wales/NOP, March 2001

52

22

10

14

 

2

ELECTION RESULT, JUNE 2001

48.6

21.0

13.8

14.3

 

2.3

HTV Wales/NOP, November 2002

51

18

14

14

 

2

HTV Wales/NOP, March 2003

51

16

15

15

 

3

HTV Wales/NOP, May-June 2004

41

22

16

15

 

6

ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2005

42.7

21.4

18.4

12.6

 

5.0

Plaid Cymru/Beaufort, March 2009

41

22

13

17

 

7

IWP-WGC/YouGov, July 2009

28

33

14

14

 

10

IWP-WGC/YouGov, October 2009

34

31

12

15

 

15

ITV-Wales/YouGov, November 2009

34

31

14

14

 

16

ITV-Wales/YouGov, January 2010

35

32

13

13

 

14

ITV-Wales/YouGov, March 2010

37

29

12

14

 

7

NAW/YouGov, March 2010

39

27

13

13

 

9

ITV-Wales/YouGov, April 2010

33

23

29

9

 

6

Western Mail/R&MP, late April 2010

37.5

23.5

21.0

10.8

 

7.2

ITV-Wales/YouGov, 1-3 May 2010

35

27

23

10

 

5

ELECTION RESULT, MAY 2010

36.2

26.1

20.1

11.3

 

6.2

ITV-Wales/YouGov, October 2010

48

29

8

11

 

7

ITV-Wales/YouGov, end-Jan–Feb 2012

50

25

6

11

 

9

Cardiff Uni/YouGov, mid-April 2012

50

23

7

12

 

9

ITV-Wales/YouGov, July 2012

54

23

4

10

 

9

ITV-Wales/YouGov, August 2012

50

23

7

9

 

12

ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013

51

22

9

10

7

2

WGC/YouGov, July 2013

48

23

8

9

8

4

ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013

46

21

8

12

10

4

Lord Aschroft, Jan 2014 (published March)

40

24

6

15

13

3

ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2014

47

22

7

11

9

4

BBC Wales/ICM, Feb 2014

42

24

9

14

7

4

*Including UKIP prior to 2013

 

As you can see, there is plenty of potentially useful information missing from this table:

  • I have found only one poll conducted before 2001.
  • I have no records of any polls conducted by firms other than NOP prior to 2009! I suspect there may well have been some from Beaufort or other companies.
  • I have no records of any published polls between 2004 and 2009. Again, I rather suspect that there will have been some.

That is the situation with regards to UK general elections. Here is the even less impressive table I have been able to put together of polls conducted in Wales for European Parliament elections:

Wales: EP Election Polls

Poll

Lab

Con

Lib-Dem

Plaid

UKIP

others

ITV Wales/NOP, May-June 2004

39

22

11

18

3

6

ELECTION RESULT, JUNE 2004

32.5

19.4

10.5

17.4

10.5

9.8

ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013

41

20

9

13

13

5

ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2013

39

17

7

12

18

7

 

Here the main problem may be simply a paucity of polls, but it is still possible that there are some that I have not been able to trace.

Can anyone help with further details here? Either on missing information about some of the polls listed, or information about other published polls that I have not yet been able to trace? (Only published polls, please. I’m not asking anyone to leak details of private polling conducted for any of the parties). Any and all help very gratefully received. You can contact me via the Comment facility here, via email or Twitter. (Contact details in the About Me section).

I can promise that these long lost polls will be given a warm welcome (I’m told that we keep one in the hillsides, somewhere), and a very loving home. Diolch.

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