The Electoral State of the Parties, 4: the Liberal Democrats

Posted on 29 August 2013 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Oh dear. What can you say about the Welsh Liberal Democrats’ current electoral fortunes that is not utterly devastating? How can you avoid feeling like you are intruding on private grief? What can be said about a political party comprised mostly of moderate, sensible and decent human beings that currently finds itself the object of
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The Electoral State of the Parties, 3: Plaid Cymru

Posted on 28 August 2013 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

At the first devolved elections in 1999, Plaid Cymru secured a higher share of the vote than the SNP. When I mentioned this fact in a recent lecture, much of the audience gaped in disbelief. Afterwards, one asked me: was I sure about that? Yes I was. (Plaid’s constituency vote share, 28.4%, was 0.3% behind
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The Electoral State of the Parties, 2: The Conservatives

Posted on 27 August 2013 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Any discussion of the Conservatives in Wales tends, at some point, to focus on the defining feature of almost their entire history – the relative weakness of Welsh Conservatism. The Conservative party in Wales has long been substantially less successful than in England, and until fairly recently was also much less successful than in Scotland.
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The Electoral State of the Parties, 1: Labour

Posted on 26 August 2013 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

This is the first in a series of Blog posts considering the current standing of the parties in Wales. It makes sense to begin with Wales’ dominant party, Labour. Indeed, any sensible analysis of contemporary party politics in Wales must surely start from its central, defining reality: Labour dominance. Labour have won at least a
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Forthcoming delights, and some site housekeeping

Posted on 21 August 2013 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Not a major post, but a brief up-date to let you know that from next week I’ll be publishing a series of posts assessing the Electoral State of the Parties in Wales. As people return from their summer holidays (although the Assembly recess actually continues until 23 September!) I’ll be assessing where all the parties
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Polling Voting Intentions for Devolved Elections in Mid-Term

Posted on 19 August 2013 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

One aspect of last month’s YouGov poll for this blog that elicited particular comment was the results for Assembly regional list voting intentions. To remind you, the voting intention figures in the poll were:   Westminster Labour: 48% Conservative: 23% LibDems: 8% Plaid Cymru 9% UKIP: 8%   National Assembly (Constituency) Labour: 46% Conservative: 19%
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The Silk Commission: new evidence on public attitudes to devolution

Posted on 14 August 2013 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

The Silk Commission has published new evidence on public attitudes to devolution in Wales. For the most part, this evidence tells us little that is actually new. Nonetheless, I think it is important in two respects. It reinforces previous findings. And it adds some further details to the broad picture. On the first point: the
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Are Young People in Wales Revolting?

Posted on 13 August 2013 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

This brief post is about the short report that I authored for the UK Changing Union project on the Attitudes of Young People Towards Devolution in Wales which was launched at the National Eisteddfod last week. (And yes, I know that this Blog is called Elections in Wales, not Public Opinion about Devolution in Wales.
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Public Attitudes to the Parties: An Alternative Approach

Posted on 6 August 2013 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

The conventional way to assess the standing of political parties with the public is through opinion polls that measure current voting intentions. This Blog, of course, recently published some such results for Wales. This is very useful information on how the parties are currently faring. However, to get a more rounded and fuller perspective on
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Ynys Môn and Penyrheol

Posted on 2 August 2013 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

Two by-elections in Wales yesterday, and two very good results for Plaid Cymru. First of all, the by-election for the National Assembly constituency seat of Ynys Môn, recently vacated by Plaid Cymru’s former leader Ieuan Wyn Jones. As has been pointed out, Ieuan had a highly impressive electoral record in Ynys Môn. Indeed, he was
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