In addition to the standard questions on voting intentions, the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll also asked a substantial number of questions about various matters related to the EU and Brexit. A first one was how people might vote in the event of the UK taking part in the May European Parliament elections. We asked Read more
Amidst the ongoing Brexit crisis, and in the wake of the recent Newport West by-election, the new Welsh Political Barometer poll provides us with the very latest measure of public attitudes to the political situation in Wales. Among the questions asked in the new poll, as is normal were ones about voting intentions for both Read more
The result from the Newport West by-election came in just after 1.30am this morning. As was generally expected, Labour held the seat although with a reduced majority. As had also been expected, turnout was significantly down on that in the general election. Here is the full result: Candidate (Party) Votes % (change on 2017) Ruth Read more
The on-going Brexit saga is enough to distract all but the most dedicated psephologist from the fact that there is a parliamentary by-election occurring tomorrow. After the sad death of Paul Flynn earlier in the year, the voters of Newport West will go to the polls (or, at least, have the opportunity to do so) Read more
At the end of last week, I recorded an episode of the Cardiff University podcast Golau, with my two fantastic colleagues Prof Jo Hunt (@johunt) and Dr Rachel Minto (@RA_Minto). The subject predictably, these days, was Brexit. As part of that, we discussed recent polling on the issue, and the likely outcome were the UK Read more
Today sees publication of the second Welsh opinion poll of the week. This one is the annual St David’s Day poll by ICM for BBC Wales. As per usual it covers various topics, including devolution, Brexit and other areas (including, this year, a couple of questions about the royal family). There will be much more Read more
Publication of the new Welsh Political Barometer poll has met with universal acclaim from a grateful nation. Well, almost. A reminder that the latest voting intention figures, and seat projections for the parties, are available here. I have also now updated the Opinion Polls section of the blog to include the full tables for the Read more
The new Welsh Political Barometer poll provides us with the first measure in 2019 of the standing of the political parties in Wales. As is normal, our new poll asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the Assembly. First, Westminster. Sampling for the new Barometer poll took place during a period of considerable instability Read more
My apologies that the blog has been quiet for a few weeks. However, there has been the little matter of the day job… In the meantime – well, politics certainly hasn’t been dull, has it? In additional to the ongoing saga of Brexit, we now have the reality of MPs breaking away from both the Read more
I thought it would be appropriate to round off the year on the blog by summarising the electoral year just finishing. 2018 did not see a general election in Wales – although one occasionally seemed possible – nor an Assembly election. Although we had a number of opinion polls during the year (and from three Read more
