As you may have noticed, the blog has been rather quiet over the weeks since the general election. Well, even us psephologists need to re-charge our batteries now and then – and perhaps particularly after an unexpected general election… Anyway, the next few weeks will likely continue to be fairly quiet. I’ll be having some Read more
On the morning of 5th July, the Wales Governance Centre (@WalesGovernance) organised an analysis seminar on the 2017 general election. The seminar was chaired with much aplomb by Catrin Haf Jones of ITV Cymru-Wales (@CatrinPenlan) – diolch yn fawr iawn iddi hi! It featured a presentation by me, and then a Q&A session with my Read more
On respect in which the 2017 general election was certainly not dull was the opinion polling in Wales. Our first two Welsh Political Barometer polls of the election showed clear Conservative leads; there was then a dramatic turnaround, with the final three polls indicating that Labour had a distinct advantage. The opinion polls are Read more
Even in this extraordinary general election, the result in Wales almost defies belief. Recall that the first Welsh two polls of the campaign put the Conservatives on historically high levels of support, and apparently on course to transform electoral politics in Wales by capturing a long list of seats from Labour. Subsequent polls had shown Read more
The final Welsh opinion poll of the 2017 general election shows Labour on course to maintain their long-standing dominance of electoral politics in Wales. It also shows the Conservatives on the brink of their highest vote share here for more than a century. Both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats, however, appear to be facing Read more
The revival in the fortunes of the Welsh Labour party is holding firm, while Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats are on course for historically bad election results. These are the standout findings from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, which has measured where the parties stand with just one week to go in the Read more
Difficult though it can be for some of us to believe at times, there are things going on in addition to the general election. Among the matters of interest to me has been the recent publication of some new evidence by Yes Cymru on levels of support for, and opposition towards, Welsh independence. A few Read more
Support for the Labour party in Wales has surged in the last two weeks, while the Conservative momentum in Wales appears to have gone into reverse. These are the key messages to come out of the new Welsh Political Barometer poll, the very latest measure of where the parties stand in the general election battle. Read more
As a few of you may have noticed, there’s a general election going on. With Wales shaping up to be potentially one of the interesting stories of this election, I’ve contributed a few pieces to various sites. Here are three things that I wrote for the New Statesman (most recent first): http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/05/results-wales-are-far-disastrous-labour-things-still-look-bleak Read more
Amidst everything else that has been going on, I have not had time to devote sufficient attention on this blog to the results of the recent local elections. However, with the very considerable help of my excellent PhD student Jac Larner (@Jaclarner on Twitter), I have been able to assemble some relevant information and a Read more
