I wrote this initially as a Twitter thread, but here it is all in one place. 2016: Worst ever Scottish devolved election result 2nd worst ever Welsh devolved election Decline in local elections (when the main opposition normally gains) 2017: Major decline in English local elections Major decline in Scottish local elections Slightly less large Read more
2019 was the third general election since the partnership of ITV-Wales, YouGov and Cardiff University combined to start conducting the Welsh Political Barometer polls in late 2013. Elections provide the hardest of tests for political polling – we have a clear, unambiguous result against which to compare our pre-election polling. So how did we do Read more
YouGov released results from their final ‘MRP’ poll last night. This is, to put it very simply, a Britain-wide poll with a very large sample (of approximately 100,000 voters), which attempts to use sophisticated statistical techniques to estimate the types of voters, and types of places, that are leaning in different directions; and then uses Read more
We could be on the verge of a genuinely historic general election outcome in Wales. That is the key message to emerge from the final Welsh Political Barometer poll of the 2019 election. Our latest poll was conducted over the final weekend of the campaign. It once again asked people across Wales, how they would Read more
The latest Welsh Political Barometer poll also included our standard vote intention questions for a devolved election. While people will understand that these are a somewhat lower priority at the moment, they are still important for the future shape of devolved politics in Wales. Here are the constituency voting intention figures (with changes from our Read more
The second Welsh opinion poll of the general election campaign has arrived. And it serves as an excellent reminder of what has long been a foundational truth about politics in Wales: never under-estimate the resilience of the Welsh Labour party. Our latest poll once again asked people across Wales, between Friday last week and today, Read more
On Monday of this week, I was joined by my fantastic Cardiff University colleagues Professor Laura McAllister and Jac Larner to do a public seminar, at the Pierhead Building in Cardiff Bay, looking ahead to the forthcoming general election. The event was chaired by our other wonderful Cardiff colleague Dr Rachel Minto, and a video Read more
Well, it hasn’t been dull so far, has it? I’ve put down some of my thoughts about the election in various places in the last week. First, about a week ago I had a short piece for The Conversation about the MPs how are not standing for re-election in 2019. You can find that here: Read more
The first opinion poll in Wales of the general election campaign has arrived. Its results suggest that, at this early stage of the campaign, Wales is currently on course for a fundamental transformation in its political landscape. Our new poll asked people across Wales, between Thursday last week and today, how they would vote in Read more
In view of the now forthcoming general election, I have put together some initial thoughts on the places in Wales where the election will be won and lost. You can read those thoughts here: Read more
