In these troubled times, what could lift the spirits of the nation more than a new Welsh Political Barometer poll? Well, a few things possibly. Nonetheless, along with YouGov and ITV Wales, we have a new poll coming out on Thursday. The poll will cover a number of matters. Some of them are things we Read more
In my previous blog post (http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2020/05/12/catching-up/) I talked about findings from the most recent Welsh Political Barometer, in April, about the general standing of the party leaders in Wales, and about public evaluations of the handling of the Covid-19 crisis by leading political figures. At the end of April YouGov did some further work on Read more
Whatever else they have been, the last couple of months have not been dull. Things have been fairly ‘lively’ with my day job; hence, it has only been in the last few days that I have been able to catch up with some things. One of those is some of the April Welsh Political Barometer Read more
I was delighted this week to join the fantastic team at Deryn Consulting for a webinar on next year’s election to the newly renamed Senedd Cymru / Welsh Parliament. We discussed the history of devolved elections in Wales, the current state of the polls, prospects for next year’s election, and what might follow after the Read more
In these difficult times there is not a great deal of good news around for many people. However, Welsh Conservatives will surely be cheered by the findings of our new Welsh Political Barometer poll. Recent Britain-wide polls have shown support for the Conservative government increasing, with the Tories’ already strong position apparently being boosted by Read more
I have put together some thoughts on the new BBC/ICM poll on voting intentions for the National Assembly. You can read them here: http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/bbc-wales-icm-poll/ Read more
As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party are at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are Read more
I wrote this initially as a Twitter thread, but here it is all in one place. 2016: Worst ever Scottish devolved election result 2nd worst ever Welsh devolved election Decline in local elections (when the main opposition normally gains) 2017: Major decline in English local elections Major decline in Scottish local elections Slightly less large Read more
2019 was the third general election since the partnership of ITV-Wales, YouGov and Cardiff University combined to start conducting the Welsh Political Barometer polls in late 2013. Elections provide the hardest of tests for political polling – we have a clear, unambiguous result against which to compare our pre-election polling. So how did we do Read more
YouGov released results from their final ‘MRP’ poll last night. This is, to put it very simply, a Britain-wide poll with a very large sample (of approximately 100,000 voters), which attempts to use sophisticated statistical techniques to estimate the types of voters, and types of places, that are leaning in different directions; and then uses Read more
