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Voting Intentions for the Welsh Assembly

The latest Welsh Political Barometer poll also included our standard vote intention questions for a devolved election. While people will understand that these are a somewhat lower priority at the moment, they are still important for the future shape of devolved politics in Wales.

Here are the constituency voting intention figures (with changes from our last poll, three weeks previously, indicated in brackets):

Labour: 32% (+5)

Conservative: 26% (+2)

Plaid Cymru: 20% (-1)

Brexit Party: 11% (-3)

Liberal Democrats: 7% (-3)

Greens: 4% (-)

Others: 1% (-)

Using the standard uniform national swing assumption, the changes since the May 2016 National Assembly election implied by this poll lead to five constituency seats being projected to change hands. All are seats won by Labour in 2016: Gower, the Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan, and Wrexham, are all projected to be won by the Conservatives, while Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Llanelli.

Meanwhile, the regional list vote figures (with changes since the previous poll again in brackets) are:

Labour: 29% (+6)

Conservative: 26% (+3)

Plaid Cymru: 21% (-)

Brexit Party: 9% (-4)

Liberal Democrats: 7% (-2)

Greens: 4% (-1)

Others: 2% (-4)

Once again assuming uniform national swings since 2016, and taking into account the constituency seat results already projected, this gives us the following projected outcome for the regional list seats:

North Wales: 1 Conservative, 1 Brexit Party, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Labour

Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Brexit Party

South Wales West: 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1 Brexit Party

South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Brexit Party, 1 Plaid Cymru

South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Brexit Party, 1 Plaid Cymru

This then generates the following overall projected outcome:

Labour: 25 seats (22 constituency + 3 list)

Conservatives: 17 seats (10 constituency + 7 list)

Plaid Cymru: 12 seats (7 constituency + 5 list)

Brexit Party: 5 seats (5 list)

Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)

Clearly, the rise in support for the Conservative and Labour parties during the general election campaign seems to be having some impact on the figures we are getting for the devolved context as well. Given that context, Plaid Cymru’s poll ratings is holding up well, while the Brexit Party are also still very much ‘in the game’ as a potentially significant force. This is, though, a rather disappointing poll for the Liberal Democrats.

Comments

  • Harry Hayfield

    According to UK-Elect the constituency changes are: Con GAIN Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan from Lab, Plaid GAIN Llanelli from Lab and the composition of the Assembly is Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 13, Brexit 4, Lib Dem 1 (Hung Assembly, Lab / Plaid coalition)

  • Harry Hayfield

    The regional changes would be:
    Conservative GAIN from Plaid in Mid and West Wales
    Plaid Cymru GAIN from Brexit in North Wales
    Conservative GAIN from Brexit in Wales South East
    Conservative GAIN from Brexit in Wales South West

    (All UKIP AM’s elected as Brexit AM’s save above changes)

  • Jacques Protic

    Wales is a lost cause and there is no future for most of the people living in Wales irrespective if the Tories or Labour are in power. Two days ago Boris Johnson endorsed the Labour’s toxic social engineering policy to create 1 Million ‘Welsh speakers’ by compulsion and it hasn’t gone unnoticed.

    Today, Nick Bennet is promoting Human Rights in Wales, whilst ignoring Welsh Governments abuse of UN HR Article 26 (3), guaranteeing parental choice to the language of teaching – Horrendous example of flouting human rights is to deny L1 English children English medium education in Wales.

    Essential reading: https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/11/26/we-need-to-talk-about-welsh-devolution/

  • Jacques Protic

    To Harry Hayfield, noticed one omission, Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party. Last time if memory serves me right they had more votes than the Greens even though the Welsh ‘media’ censored them completely. As I understand it, this time they are well organised and have new and highly capable people to articulate their cause. They are likely to draw support from Labour and Tory voters and could obliterate the ex UKIP lot (Brexit Party) No idea what Neil Hamilton or Gareth Bennett will do to save their seats.

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