As I mentioned in a previous blog post (see the link below), for the first time ever this year in Wales we have conducted an On the Day poll on how people actually voted in the National Assembly election.
YouGov re-contacted 1,322 people who had been interviewed for a previous poll. This is what they found:
These are the figures for the two ballots (with changes on the 2011 result in brackets):
Labour: 33% (-9.3)
Conservative: 21% (-4.0%)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (-0.3)
UKIP: 16% (+16)
Lib-Dems: 8% (-2.6)
Labour: 30% (-6.9)
Plaid Cymru: 21% (+3.1)
Conservative: 19% (-3.5)
UKIP: 16% (+11.4)
Lib-Dems: 6% (-2.0)
Greens: 4% (+0.6)
These numbers yield the following seat projections:
Labour: 27 seats (25 constituency + 2 list)
Plaid Cymru: 12 seats (6 constituency + 6 list)
Conservative: 11 seats (7 constituency + 4 list)
UKIP: 8 seats (8 list seats)
Lib-Dems: 2 seats (2 constituency seats)
If this poll were to be correct, Labour would narrowly avoid their worst ever vote-shares on both ballots, and have one seat more than they managed in 2007. The Conservatives would have ended their run of improving their position at every Assembly election. Plaid Cymru are projected to very narrowly regain the position of the second largest party in the Assembly. But almost certainly the main headline would be the UKIP breakthrough – going from 0 to 8 seats.
However, all that depends on the poll being correct. And only very small changes in vote share could tip some seats in other directions. Still, we won’t have long to wait until we start getting some actual results, and see how that compares with the poll.
The specify constituency seats projected to change hands are:
- Cardiff Central: won by the Lib-Dems from Labour
- Cardiff North: gained by the Tories from Labour
- Llanelli: gained by Plaid Cymru from Labour
For the regions, we are currently projecting the following outcomes:
North: 2 UKIP, 1 Plaid, 1 Con
MWW: 2 Labour, 2 UKIP
SWW: 2 Plaid, 1 UKIP, 1 Con
SWC: 2 Plaid, 1 UKIP, 1 Con
SWE: 2 UKIP, 1 Plaid, 1 Con
More analysis to follow later – if I get the time!