Uncategorized

All EU Referendum Polls in Wales

Another of my occasional up-dates of the full run of EU referendum polls we have had in Wales. Table below – then footnotes about precise question wording and number of responses in each poll,

 

Wales, EU Referendum Polls

 

Poll % Remain % Leave % DK/ NV % ‘Remain’ Lead
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013a 42 35 22 7
Western Mail/Beaufort, June 2013b 29 37 35 -8
WGC/YouGov, July 2013c 39 40 21 -1
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 2013d 38 40 22 -2
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Feb 2014e 44 33 23 11
Walesonline/YouGov, June 2014f 41 38 22 3
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, June-July 2014g 41 36 24 5
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, September 2014h 43 37 20 6
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 2014i 42 39 19 3
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov,  January 2015j 44 36 20 8
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov,  early-March 2015k 43 36 22 7
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov,  late-March 2015l 44 38 18 6
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov,  May 2015m 47 33 21 14
BES/YouGov, May 2015n 50 33 18 17
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov,  June 2015o 44 37 19 7
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, September 2015p 42 38 21 4
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, December 2015q 40 42 19 -2
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, February 2016r 37 45 19 -8
WES/YouGov, March 2016s 41 36 24 5
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, April 2016t 38 39 23 -1
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, late-April 2016u 41 37 22 4

 

a. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1007. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

b. Face-to-face poll conducted by Beaufort Research for the Western Mail. Number of respondents = 988; Questions asked: “If there was a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

c. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff University.. Number of respondents = 1012. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

d. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1001. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

e. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1250. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

f. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for Walesonline. Number of respondents = 2270. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

g. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1035. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

h. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1025. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

i. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1131. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

j. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1036. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

k. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1279. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

l. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1189. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

m. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1202. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

n. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for British Election Study. Number of respondents = 1557. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

o. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1151. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote?”

p. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1010. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

q. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1005. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

r. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1024. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

s. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for the Welsh Election Study. Number of respondents = 3272. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

t. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1011. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

u. Internet poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales. Number of respondents = 1001. Question asked: “If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

 

Comments

  • J.Jones

    Politicalbetting has an EU referendum poll with National splits here:-

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/30/opinum-has-euref-outcome-for-maximum-chaos-england-wales-vote-out-but-scotland-means-its-overall-for-in/

    Scotland has been obsessing that they may be dragged out of the EU by England and Wales. On the contrary it seems; Wales and England are inclined to narrowly vote OUT with Scotland voting IN and tipping the balance so that Britain stays IN. The Scottish tail wagging the British dog.

  • J.Jones

    I have a burning question for you Roger related to the rumoured Assembly election sometime soon. I think that we can all agree that Labour will be the biggest party and will poll something like 33%. The exact figure doesn’t really matter. At the moment it looks very much as if Plaid will be the next biggest party and poll somewhere about 21%. Plaid becomes the official opposition; except Plaid then forms a coalition with Labour leaving the Conservatives with 19% of the vote to be the opposition.

    However, just because Plaid and Labour have 54% of the vote between them doesn’t mean that 54% would have voted for that coalition or would accept that coalition, indeed if that particular coalition was on the ballot paper perhaps only 30% could consider voting for it. This coalition would leave 70% of the voters unhappy. However if, as last time, only 42% of the electorate votes, what percentage of eligible voters will have elected a Plaid/ Labour government?

    Do political “anoraks” like yourself (sorry) ever consider whether the concept of democracy really sits comfortably with the situation in Wales?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *