In addition to asking about the National Assembly, our new Welsh Political Barometer poll has also continued to run questions about voting intentions for both Westminster and the EU Referendum. Here are the results.
First, for Westminster. The general election voting intention figures (with changes on the last Welsh Political Barometer poll earlier in the month indicated in brackets) are:
Labour: 37% (-1)
Conservatives: 23% (+1)
UKIP: 17% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 7% (+1)
Others: 3% (-1)
So here, as for the National Assembly, we see Labour remaining some way ahead of the pack, though their support level edging downwards very marginally. After their three-point fall in our last survey, the Conservatives support edges up here, but still remains several points below where they were earlier this year. There are similarly tiny moves in support for UKIP and the Liberal Democrats, while Plaid Cymu remain exactly stable.
Following the standard Uniform National Swing assumption, this poll projects four seats in Wales to change hands from the result in the general election: for Labour to regain Cardiff North, Gower and the Vale of Clwyd from the Conservatives, and Plaid Cymru to gain Ynys Môn from Labour. Under the alternative assumption of Ratio Swing, the same four seats are projected to change hands.
For the EU Referendum we also see some change from our last Welsh Political Barometer poll. The figures (with changes from earlier in the month again indicated in brackets) are as follows:
Remain: 41% (+3)
Leave: 37% (-2)
Don’t Know / Wouldn’t Vote: 22% (-1)
So, things continue to be very close here, but with Remain edging back into the lead in our latest survey. The changes here are only small, and within the ‘margin of error’. But they are also consistent with the modest moves towards Remain in GB-wide polls in the last week or two. Remain continue to be the more likely side to win the referendum in both Wales and the UK as a whole. But it is by no means a ‘done deal’ in either case.