Uncategorized

The 2015 Election Result in Wales

Well, I think we can safely say that that was an ‘interesting’ general election…

The final result in Wales was (with changes in vote share and seats from 2010 in brackets):

 

Party Votes % Vote Seats
Labour 552,473 36.9% (+0.7) 25 (-1)
Conservative 407,813 27.2% (+1.1) 11 (+3)
UKIP 204,360 13.6% (+11.2) 0
Plaid Cymru 181,694 12.1% (+0.8) 3
Liberal Democrats 97,783 6.5% (-13.6%) 1 (-2)
Greens 38,344 2.6% (+2.1) 0
Others 15,616 1.1% (-2.3) 0

 

I’ve posted a link, in the Election Results section of the blog, to the full BBC list of results in Wales.

You can also see here, a spreadsheet list of the changes in vote share, for each of the six main parties in Wales, in every seat.

Meanwhile, my friend Harry Hayfield has very kindly prepared a list of what are now the ten most marginal Welsh seats:

10) Ceredigion (Lib Dem lead of 8.20%)

9) Alyn and Deeside (Lab lead of 8.09%)

8) Delyn (Lab lead of 7.82%)

7) Clwyd South (Lab lead of 6.85%)

6) Wrexham (Lab lead of 5.60%)

5) Bridgend (Lab lead of 4.88%)

4) Cardiff North (Con lead of 4.18%)

3) Vale of Clwyd (Con lead of 0.67%)

2) Ynys Môn (Lab lead of 0.66%)

1) Gower (Con lead of 0.06%)

 

Harry has also been kind enough to work through the numbers and look at what would happen in next year’s Assembly election if people voted as they did this year. (And before anyone objects, yes both Harry and I know very well that many people tend to vote differently in the two elections! We also know that there are two ballots next year; for now, Harry has assumed a 100% transfer of constituency votes to regional votes, which of course has never happened in an Assembly election to date.)

Anyway, here are the numbers Harry has worked out:

 

North Wales Constituencies: Labour 5, Conservatives 3, Plaid Cymru 1

North Wales Regional List Votes: Labour 107,722, Conservatives 100,103, UKIP 44,392, Plaid 42,637 (No other parties get enough to be in the running for the list seats)

North Wales Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, UKIP win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

 

Mid and West Wales Constituencies: Conservatives 4, Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 1, Liberal Democrats 1

Mid and West Wales Regional List Votes: Conservatives 90,209, Labour 63,798, Plaid 56,382, Liberal Democrats 39,219, UKIP 33,649

Mid and West Wales Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Lab win the second seat, Lib Dem win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 1, Lab 1, Lib Dem 1, Plaid 1)

 

South Wales West Constituencies: Labour 6, Conservatives 1

South Wales West Regional List Votes: Labour 113,582, Conservatives 56,685, UKIP 37,692, Plaid 25,540

South Wales West Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, Plaid win the third seat, UKIP win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

 

South Wales Central Constituencies: Labour 6, Conservatives 2

South Wales Central Regional List Votes: Labour 135,592, Conservatives 86,878, UKIP 37,346, Plaid 34,629, Lib Dem 24,338

South Wales Central Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Plaid win the second seat, Con win the third seat, Lib Dem win the fourth seat (UKIP 1, Plaid 1, Con 1, Lib Dem 1)

 

South Wales East Constituencies: Labour 7, Conservatives 1

South Wales East Regional List Votes: Labour 131,779, Conservatives 73,938, UKIP 51,251, Plaid 22,516

South Wales East Regional List Allocation: UKIP win the first seat, Con win the second seat, UKIP win the third seat, Plaid win the fourth seat (UKIP 2, Con 1, Plaid 1)

 

Constituencies Won: Labour 25, Conservatives 11, Plaid Cymru 3, Liberal Democrats 1

Regional List Members Elected: Labour 1, Conservatives 4, Plaid Cymru 5, Liberal Democrats 2, UKIP 8

Total Assembly Members: Labour 26, Conservatives 15, Plaid Cymru 8, UKIP 8, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour short of a majority by 5)

 

And before anyone tweets excitedly about this, neither Harry nor I are predicting that this is what will happen next year.

 

Comments

  • Neil Anderson

    Good analysis. I suspect we may get some shocks in North Wales as mismanagement of the NHS is becoming a major issue. Can Plaid tap into this? It should be an open goal for the Conservatives, but we have 12 months of austerity to factor in first.

    8 UKIP AMs is shocking and will only serve to discredit the Assembly’s mandate.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *