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The Other Barometer Results

As well as probing voting intentions for the general election, our latest Welsh Political Barometer has continued to ask about how people intend to vote in several other elections and referendums that may, or will, be facing Wales in the near future.

First, we asked people about their voting intentions for the National Assembly. With the elections for this body following on exactly one year after the general election, where do the parties stand right now?

For the constituency vote, the results of our new poll were (with changes from our previous poll, in early December in brackets):

  • Labour 34% (-1%)
  • Conservative 21% (-1%)
  • Plaid Cymru 18% (-1%)
  • UKIP 13% (+1%)
  • Liberal Democrats 7% (+1%)
  • Greens 6% (+1%)
  • Others 1% (no change)

Clearly, very little has changed since our last poll, with all the parties seeing changes in their support levels but by amounts that are well within the ‘margin of error’.

On these figures, and assuming uniform national swings across Wales, only two constituency seats would change hands from the results in the last Assembly election in May 2011: the Liberal Democrats would gain Cardiff Central from Labour, while Labour would also lose Llanelli to Plaid Cymru.

For the regional list vote, we saw the following results (with changes from our December poll again indicated):

  • Labour 32% (+1%)
  • Conservative 20% (no change)
  • Plaid Cymru 15% (-4%)
  • UKIP 16% (+1%)
  • Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
  • Greens 8% (+1%)
  • Others 2% (no change)

Here there is a little more change evident. Plaid Cymru see a quite large fall in their regional list vote (after having had a significant rise in our previous poll), while several other parties edge upwards by smaller amounts.

Taking into account both the constituency and list results, this produces the following projected seat outcome for a National Assembly election (with aggregate changes from 2011 indicated in brackets):

  • Labour: 28 (-2): 26 constituency AMs, 2 list AMs
  • Conservative: 10 (-4); 6 constituency AMs, 4 list AMs
  • Plaid Cymru: 9 (-2); 6 constituency AMs, 3 list AMs
  • UKIP: 8 (+8): all list AMs
  • Greens: 3 (+3): a list AMs
  • Liberal Democrats: 2 (-3); 2 constituency AMs

So, for the second time in a row, our Barometer poll projects an outcome which would mean six different parties being represented in the National Assembly. This time, though, the relatively strong performance of the Greens in our new poll actually relegates the Lib-Dems to sixth place in terms of projected seats. The Greens are projected to win list seats in North Wales, Mid and West Wales, and South Wales Central.

We should note, though, that with so many different parties in the mix, several of the list seats are projected to be won by tiny margins. In South Wales West, the final list seat was allocated to UKIP over the Conservatives in a calculation that went to the third decimal place – equivalent to about two votes! As the polls bob up and down in the period leading up to the next Assembly election we should expect to see the projected regional list seat outcomes showing quite a lot of turbulence.

As well as asking about election voting intentions, however, our Barometer polls have continued to ask people in Wales how they would vote in the two potential referendums we may be facing in the not-too-distant future. One of these is on the UK’s membership of the EU. In our latest poll, 44% of respondents in Wales said that they would vote for Britain to remain in the EU and 36% said that they would vote for Britain to leave, with the remaining 20% indicating either they didn’t know or that they would not vote in such a referendum.

This 8% margin between those who want to stay in the EU and those who want to leave is quite narrow. It is, though, the largest gap that we have seen for some months in Wales. The table below shows the results of all polls on this question conducted by YouGov in Wales since the launch of the Welsh Political Barometer in December 2013. The ‘remain’ camp has led in all of them bar the first, but that lead is normally very slender. If we do see an EU referendum at some time in the next few years it is far from clear which side Wales would end up supporting.

 

Poll % Remain % Leave % Don’t Know / Wouldn’t Vote % ‘remain’ Lead
December 2013 38 40 22 -2
February 2014 44 33 23 11
June 2014 41 38 22 3
July 2014 41 36 24 5
September 2014 43 37 20 6
December 2014 42 39 19 3
January 2015 44 36 20 8

 

Another question that has been consistently run in Barometer polls concerns a possible referendum on handing some powers over income tax to the National Assembly. Our latest poll finds 37% of respondents indicating that they would vote in favour of the Assembly gaining some powers to raise or lower income tax levels in Wales but 39% suggesting that they would vote against; the remaining 24% were either unsure or indicated that they would not vote.

The table below again shows the various polls conducted by YouGov on this question since the launch of the Barometer poll just over a year ago. We can see here that, as with the matter of Britain’s EU membership, opinion in Wales has consistently been fairly evenly divided on this question. But here also we find that one side has consistently led, if mostly by fairly small margins. Not one poll conducted by YouGov has yet shown those in favour of devolving income tax in the lead. It seems unlikely that Welsh political leaders will be eager to hold an income tax referendum any time soon, with the balance of public opinion being so marginal, and actually leaning towards opposition.

 

Poll % Yes % No % Don’t Know / Wouldn’t Vote % ‘No’ Lead
December 2013 35 38 26 3
February 2014 31 42 28 11
May 2014 33 39 28 6
June 2014 34 41 25 7
July 2014 32 42 26 10
September 2014 38 39 24 1
December 2014 37 38 25 1
January 2015 37 39 24 2

 

 

Comments

  • Jason Morgan

    Hi Roger, I’ve just been pouring through the PDF on the latest poll and I’m a little confused on one thing, perhaps you could clarify. There are both the Headline Voting Intention and the Constituency: Headline Voting Intention – is the second one what people intend to vote when considering their constituency as opposed to generally?

    • Roger Scully

      Headline voting intention is for the general election. Constituency and List are for the Assembly of course; they label it ‘Headline’ because those are the numbers after the Don’t Knows and Wouldn’t Votes are taken out.

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