Something to Look Forward To

Next Monday will see publication of the main batch of results from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll. These polls are being conducted by ITV-Wales, us in Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, and the polling agency YouGov. Our collective aim is to ensure that regular political polling is conducted and published in Wales, thereby contributing to a more informed public debate.

The results published on Monday will include voting intention figures for the forthcoming European election, and a question about certainty to vote in the European elections. Given the low turnouts that habitually plague European elections, which parties can get their votes out may well be key.

We will also have voting intention figures for the next UK general election and the National Assembly election (both constituency and list vote). In addition, the poll carried questions on how people would vote in referendums on British membership of the EU, and on income tax powers for the National Assembly.

As if that wasn’t enough, the poll also carried questions on attitudes to Scottish and Welsh independence. There was also a further set of questions, specially commissioned by the UK’s Changing Union project, asking about views concerning how many members the National Assembly should have. Results for the latter set of questions will be released later – after the European elections.

I’ve just received the results from the latest poll. You’ll have to wait until Monday for the details. All I can say for now is that sometimes polls produce rather dull, ‘steady as she goes’ findings. This is definitely not one of those polls.


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