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A New Voting Intention Poll in Wales!

 

Cardiff and Edinburgh Universities, working with IPPR and YouGov, are currently conducting detailed research examining political attitudes across England, Scotland and Wales. The full details of most of this work will not be published until the summer, when we have written up our report. However, we thought that it might be of interest to many of you to publish now the current voting intention figures. This is a nice little bonus for those of us getting impatient for the next Welsh Political Barometer poll, which is not due until mid-May, and in need of a polling fix before then.

(The polling was conducted from 11-22 April; the sample size was 1027, and the data has been weighted using YouGov’s standard weighting scheme for Wales, to ensure representativeness).

We asked about voting intentions for Westminster, the National Assembly, and the forthcoming European Parliament election. First, Westminster. The voting intention figures (with changes on the last YouGov poll, the February Welsh Political Barometer, in brackets) were:

 

Labour: 45% (-2)

Conservative: 24% (+2)

LibDems: 7% (no change)

Plaid Cymru: 11% (no change)

UKIP: 10% (+1)

Others: 3% (-1)

 

Applying these figures across Wales (and assuming, as per usual, uniform swings from the last general election), this yields the following projected result:

 

Labour: 31 (holding the 26 seats won in 2010, plus gaining: Arfon, Cardiff Central, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan)

Conservative: 6 (losing Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan to Labour, but gaining Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats)

LibDems: 1 (holding Ceredigion, but losing Brecon and Radnor to the Conservatives and Cardiff Central to Labour)

Plaid: 2 (holding Dwyfor Meirionydd and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, but losing Arfon to Labour)

 

For the National Assembly, we see the following figures (with changes on the February Welsh Political Barometer, again in brackets):

 

Constituency Vote

Labour: 41% (-1)

Conservative: 21% (no change)

LibDems: 8% (-1)

Plaid Cymru: 20% (+1)

UKIP: 7% (+2)

Others: 2% (-1)

 

List Vote

Labour: 37% (-2)

Conservative: 21% (+2)

LibDems: 7% (-2)

Plaid Cymru: 19% (+2)

UKIP: 10% (no change)

Others: 2% (-1)

 

Again applying these figures across Wales and assuming uniform swings from the last Assembly election, we see the following constituency results:

 

Labour: 27 (holding all the seats won in 2011 except for Llanelli)

Conservative: 6 (unchanged from 2011)

LibDems: 1 (holding Brecon and Radnor)

Plaid: 6 (holding all seats won in 2011, and gaining Llanelli)

 

And these results for the regional list seats:

 

North: 2 Conservative, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid

Mid & West: 2 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 UKIP

South West: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP

South Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP

South East: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP

 

Producing the following final overall outcome (with changes from 2011 in brackets)

 

Party

Constituency

List

TOTAL

Labour

27 (-1)

2

29 (-1)

Conservative

6

7 (-1)

13 (-1)

Liberal Democrats

1

1 (-3)

2 (-3)

Plaid Cymru

6 (+1)

5 (-1)

11

UKIP

0

5 (+5)

5 (+5)

 

Finally, what about the European Parliament election in May? This was the level of support for the parties (with changes from the February Welsh Political Barometer again in brackets):

 

Labour: 39% (no change)

Conservative: 18% (+1)

LibDems: 7% (no change)

Plaid Cymru: 11% (-1)

UKIP: 20% (+2)

Others: 6% (-1)

 

If these levels of support were repeated in next month’s election, Wales would elect two Labour MEPs, one UKIP representative and one Conservative, with Plaid Cymru’s Jill Evans losing her seat.

 

In general, these figures support the idea that Labour’s position in Wales has weakened slightly over the last year or so. While Labour are still well ahead, their vote share now is notably lower than it was throughout 2012 and early 2013. (See the Opinion Polls section of the Blog for details). Still, as I have observed previously, if you were in any of the other parties, you wouldn’t mind having Labour’s problems.

The Conservatives continue to hold steady at a decent level of support across Wales; their support has remained impressively resilient throughout the period since they returned to government in London in 2010.

The Liberal Democrats are also holding steady – but at a level where you wouldn’t want to be steady: they are currently on course to come fifth in the European election, lose all but two of their Assembly seats, and be reduced to one representative at Westminster. There is no current sign of them reviving in support.

Plaid Cymru’s slight rise in support for the Assembly will be of some encouragement to them; their prospects for the European election, however, currently look much less good.

The party in Wales which perhaps has the most positive news to draw from this poll is UKIP. Though their support levels in Wales continue to lag behind those in England, UKIP have become a significant force in Welsh party politics.

Comments

  • Eddie gabrielsen

    Useful but I think the changes in the general election will follow more national trends

  • Roger Scully

    Thanks for the interest, Eddie.

    But I’m not quite sure I follow the meaning of your comment. More national than what, and in what way?

  • sean

    THe idea of UKIP members in the welsh assembly …I know it shouldnt but somehow it just makes me question the purpose of UKIP…would they presumably be against the Welsh Assembly and then take seats , claim expenses but do nothing ….could be interesting times.

    Great post by the way ..

    • Roger Scully

      UKIP’s policy – I’m fairly certain – used to be to abolish the Assembly. I believe they have now reversed that policy. However, I think it’s still the case that they are not very pro-devolution.

      It would probably be fair to say that their record in the European Parliament has not been one of substantial activity and levels of participation. We can’t, of course, know yet if they would take a similar approach to the Welsh Assembly. But I suspect that we may well get the chance to find out in 2016…

      • Thom Hollick

        AMs in the Welsh Assembly across all parties have a much better record of attendance than Westminster and many other bodies. If UKIP AMs follow the lead of their MEPs and Rosemary Butler remains the Presiding Officer of the Siambr, I cant see them being invited to take part in many debates!

  • J.Jones

    I continue to think that UKIP in Wales, unlovely though their core policies are, will be relatively popular as the “Not part of the concensus” party.

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