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The First Welsh Political Barometer Poll of 2020

Posted on 29 January 2020 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His Conservative Party are at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election. There are
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The Electoral Record of Jeremy Corbyn’s Leadership: A Very Brief Summary

Posted on 14 December 2019 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

I wrote this initially as a Twitter thread, but here it is all in one place. 2016: Worst ever Scottish devolved election result 2nd worst ever Welsh devolved election Decline in local elections (when the main opposition normally gains) 2017: Major decline in English local elections Major decline in Scottish local elections Slightly less large
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How Did the Welsh Political Barometer Perform in 2019?

Posted on 13 December 2019 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

2019 was the third general election since the partnership of ITV-Wales, YouGov and Cardiff University combined to start conducting the Welsh Political Barometer polls in late 2013. Elections provide the hardest of tests for political polling – we have a clear, unambiguous result against which to compare our pre-election polling. So how did we do
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One Last Welsh Poll…

Posted on 11 December 2019 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

YouGov released results from their final ‘MRP’ poll last night. This is, to put it very simply, a Britain-wide poll with a very large sample (of approximately 100,000 voters), which attempts to use sophisticated statistical techniques to estimate the types of voters, and types of places, that are leaning in different directions; and then uses
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