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The Jeremy Corbyn Leadership’s Electoral Record: A Very Brief Summary

Posted on 14 December 2019 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

I wrote this initially as a Twitter thread, but here it is all in one place. 2016: Worst ever Scottish devolved election result 2nd worst ever Welsh devolved election Decline in local elections (when the main opposition normally gains) 2017: Major decline in English local elections Major decline in Scottish local elections Slightly less large
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How Did the Welsh Political Barometer Perform in 2019?

Posted on 13 December 2019 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

2019 was the third general election since the partnership of ITV-Wales, YouGov and Cardiff University combined to start conducting the Welsh Political Barometer polls in late 2013. Elections provide the hardest of tests for political polling – we have a clear, unambiguous result against which to compare our pre-election polling. So how did we do
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One Last Welsh Poll…

Posted on 11 December 2019 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

YouGov released results from their final ‘MRP’ poll last night. This is, to put it very simply, a Britain-wide poll with a very large sample (of approximately 100,000 voters), which attempts to use sophisticated statistical techniques to estimate the types of voters, and types of places, that are leaning in different directions; and then uses
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The Final Welsh Political Barometer Poll of the 2019 General Election

Posted on 9 December 2019 by Professor Roger Awan-Scully

We could be on the verge of a genuinely historic general election outcome in Wales. That is the key message to emerge from the final Welsh Political Barometer poll of the 2019 election. Our latest poll was conducted over the final weekend of the campaign. It once again asked people across Wales, how they would
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